US Senate Reaches Deal to End Government Shutdown, Bitcoin Rebounds

TLDR

• The US Senate has reached a three-part bipartisan budget deal to end the 40-day government shutdown, with enough support to pass the 60-vote threshold
• Bitcoin rebounded 4.2% to $106,269 and Ethereum gained 7.4% to $3,643 as traders anticipated the shutdown ending
• The funding deal runs through January 30, reverses recent federal layoffs, and guarantees a December vote on Affordable Care Act tax credits
• Prediction markets on Polymarket now show a 54% chance the shutdown ends between Tuesday and Friday, up from 27% a day earlier
• The last government shutdown in 2018-2019 ended with Bitcoin rallying 266% over the following five months

The US Senate has reached a bipartisan agreement on a budget deal to end the government shutdown that has lasted 40 days. According to Politico, the deal has more than enough support to pass the required 60-vote threshold.

Republican Senate Majority Leader John Thune secured Democratic backing on his 15th attempt to pass a House-approved funding bill. An official vote is still needed to finalize the agreement.

The funding deal covers three parts and keeps the government running through January 30. It also reverses recent federal layoffs and guarantees a December vote on extending Affordable Care Act tax credits. These provisions secured at least eight Democratic votes in favor.

The crypto market responded quickly to the news. Bitcoin rose 4.2% to $106,269 while Ethereum gained 7.4% to $3,643.

These gains helped recover some of the losses from last week. Both cryptocurrencies saw improved liquidity as macro uncertainty decreased.

Bitcoin had reached a new high of $126,080 six days into the shutdown on October 6. Since then, it has fallen over 17% to around $104,370 before the recent rebound.

The decline accelerated on October 10 when President Trump announced 100% tariffs on China. This sent shockwaves through financial markets worldwide.

Prediction Markets Signal Confidence

Traders on prediction market Polymarket are betting the shutdown will end this week. The platform shows a 54% chance of the government reopening between Tuesday and Friday.

These odds represent a sharp reversal from just 24 hours earlier. At that time, traders saw a 63% chance the shutdown would extend beyond November 16 into Thanksgiving.

Competitor platform Kalshi shows similar sentiment. It estimates the government shutdown will end on Friday, which would be day 44 of the closure.

The ongoing shutdown has disrupted air travel and welfare programs. The FAA ordered a 4% reduction in flights, causing thousands of cancellations. The USDA also halted food stamp payments.

Historical Context and Market Impact

The last US government shutdown occurred from late December 2018 to late January 2019 during Trump’s first term. After it ended on January 25, 2019, Bitcoin rose over 265% from $3,550 to $13,000 over the next five months.

Uncertainty over the government’s reopening date has weighed on crypto markets. The lack of clarity prevented Bitcoin and the broader crypto market from mounting a sustained rebound.

Some crypto-related issues remain unresolved. Traders are skeptical the SEC will have time to approve a Cardano ETF before year-end. Just a month ago, prediction markets showed a 90% chance of an ADA ETF approval by the end of 2025. That figure now stands at 38%.

Trump announced on Sunday that most Americans will receive a $2,000 dividend from tariff revenue. Approximately 85% of adults will be eligible, excluding high-income earners.

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