Bitcoin Holds $77,000 Ahead of Jackson Hole: What Warsh's First Keynote and PCE Data Mean for Crypto This Week

Bitcoin (BTC) trades near $77,000 after briefly approaching $80,000, up more than 21% in a week, its biggest weekly candle since 2023, and up about 23% in August, on track for its best August since 2017.

The rally was ignited by the US Treasury's decision to expand buybacks of long dated government debt, roughly doubling the maximum size of individual operations, alongside President Trump's renewed call for Congress to pass crypto legislation and more than $1.2 billion in short liquidations within 24 hours.

The advance was broad: Ethereum (ETH) gained about 28% to $2,440, XRP led majors with a 46% surge, Solana rose 24%, Dogecoin 30% and HYPE 35%, lifting total crypto market capitalization to roughly $2.6 trillion.

The week now stacks the tests: consumer confidence Tuesday, July PCE inflation Wednesday with the headline rate expected at 3.6%, revised GDP Thursday, and Fed Chair Kevin Warsh's first Jackson Hole keynote on Friday.

Analysts warn the market has a much higher bar to clear after its strongest weekly rally in years, with leverage elevated, the Fear and Greed Index deep in greed territory, and geopolitics adding new US sanctions on Iran's oil and banking networks to the mix.

 

 

Two weeks ago, Bitcoin was grinding 10 day lows near $62,500 and analysts were debating why nothing could move it. The answer arrived from an unexpected direction. The US Treasury announced an expansion of its buyback program for long dated government debt, lifting the maximum purchased in individual operations from $2 billion to at least $4 billion, a liquidity injection that suppresses long term yields and frees investor cash for risk assets. President Trump amplified the move with a public call for Congress to pass stalled crypto legislation, and the combination detonated the most crowded trade in the market: more than $1.2 billion in crypto shorts were liquidated within a single 24 hour period.

The result was Bitcoin's strongest week in years. BTC surged from the low $60,000s to within reach of $80,000 before pausing near $77,000, up more than 21% over seven days, its largest weekly candle since 2023. August's roughly 23% gain puts the month on track to be Bitcoin's best August since 2017, remarkable against a historical median August return of negative 7%. The move was broad rather than narrow: Ethereum added about 28% to $2,440, Solana rose 24% to $94, Dogecoin jumped 30%, Hyperliquid's HYPE gained 35% to $80, and XRP led everything with a 46% surge, pushing total crypto market capitalization to about $2.6 trillion. Sentiment gauges flipped from fear to greed in days.

 

 

Now the rally meets its examiner. The Federal Reserve's annual Jackson Hole symposium runs late this week, themed around financial innovation, payments and policy, and Friday brings the centerpiece: Kevin Warsh's first keynote address as Fed Chair. Jackson Hole is where Fed chairs traditionally signal the policy path in a setting less constrained than a formal meeting, and Warsh has given markets unusually little to work with since taking office, keeping statements short and declining to project rates. That silence makes Friday's speech the single most important half hour of the month for risk assets.

The stakes cut both ways. A speech that keeps further tightening at arm's length would preserve the weaker dollar, lower yield backdrop that powered the rally, according to Capital.com senior analyst Daniela Hathorn, who cautions that Bitcoin now faces "a much higher bar to clear" after such a vertical move. A hawkish surprise, leaning on above target inflation and the new tariff and energy pressures, could trigger sharp profit taking in a market where leverage has rebuilt quickly. The wildcard is geopolitical: Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent announced fresh sanctions on Iran's oil and banking networks, and analysts describe the week as a collision between Jackson Hole and lingering conflict risk.

 

The macro calendar does not wait for the keynote. Tuesday brings US consumer confidence, expected near 91. Wednesday delivers the headliner, July PCE inflation, the Fed's preferred gauge, with the headline rate forecast to ease to 3.6% from 3.7% and core expected up 0.2% on the month. Thursday adds revised second quarter GDP. Cooler prints would validate the market's bet that the hiking debate is dying and hand Warsh a friendly backdrop; hot ones would set up an uncomfortable tension between the data and a rally built on easier liquidity. Crypto has its own calendar too: BNB Smart Chain activates its Pasteur hard fork Monday night, and the Bitcoin Asia conference runs in Hong Kong midweek.

 

Technically, Bitcoin is consolidating just below the round number magnet. Resistance sits at $78,500, the level analysts flag as the trigger for a run at $80,000, beyond which the October 2025 all time high at $126,198 becomes the cycle reference rather than a near term target. On pullbacks, traders are watching whether the mid $70,000s consolidation holds; a deeper flush would find its first major reference back in the $66,000 to $68,000 zone where the breakout began. Momentum indicators have cooled to neutral on lower timeframes, consistent with a market digesting gains rather than reversing, though after a 21% week, digestion can easily mean a several thousand dollar range.

 

Weeks like this reward planning over prediction. The event times are known: PCE lands Wednesday morning US time and Warsh speaks Friday, and the sharpest moves often come on the keynote's tone rather than any single line. Traders can follow the live BTC/USDT and ETH/USDT prices on MEXC, set alerts at $78,500 and the mid $70,000s support, and use stop loss and take profit orders on MEXC Futures to predefine risk before the releases rather than reacting mid spike. With funding rates and leverage elevated after the rally, position sizing matters more than usual in both directions.