MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy, has long been known for its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy and its near-total reluctance to sell. But recently, the company has made a notable shift in MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy, has long been known for its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy and its near-total reluctance to sell. But recently, the company has made a notable shift in

Can Strategy (MicroStrategy) Still Affect the Crypto Market by Buying Bitcoin?

#行业观察

2026/08/19 18:04

MicroStrategy, now known as Strategy, has long been known for its aggressive Bitcoin accumulation strategy and its near-total reluctance to sell. But recently, the company has made a notable shift in how it manages its massive Bitcoin holdings. Instead of treating BTC purely as a long-term reserve asset, Strategy is beginning to approach it as a tool for optimizing its capital structure and maintaining liquidity.

The question many investors are now asking is: can this new strategy still have the same impact on the market as before?

Key Takeaways

Strategy is shifting from one-way BTC accumulation toward two-way capital management through BTC Monetization.
An mNAV below 1x makes the model of issuing shares to buy BTC less efficient.
Spot Bitcoin ETFs are becoming a larger source of institutional demand than Strategy.
Strategy still holds around 4% of the total BTC supply, but its relative market impact is declining.
Investors need to monitor mNAV, ETF flows, and the possibility of Strategy selling BTC.

1. Why Did the Crypto Market Care So Much Whenever Strategy Made a Move?

Between 2020 and 2024, whenever Michael Saylor, co-founder and executive chairman of Strategy, hinted at another BTC purchase, the trading community would react almost immediately.

The logic was fairly simple: Strategy raised capital by issuing common stock, preferred shares, or debt, then allocated most of the proceeds to Bitcoin as a reserve asset on its balance sheet. As the company repeatedly became a net buyer on a scale ranging from hundreds of millions to billions of dollars per purchase, the market viewed Strategy as a persistent source of institutional demand capable of absorbing circulating supply and pushing prices higher. By 2026, however, the picture has changed. According to the Q2/2026 financial report and the latest updates:

Strategy's BTC holdings peaked at around 846,000 BTC at the end of June.
As of August 17, 2026, the figure had fallen to 840,447 BTC after the company launched its BTC Monetization program, meaning it began selling part of its holdings to strengthen its cash reserves and fund preferred stock dividends.

This marks the first time Strategy's role has shifted from a "one-way buyer" to a "two-way manager," challenging the familiar narrative that the market had relied on for years. CEO Phong Le later reassured investors that the company would resume Bitcoin accumulation toward the end of 2026 once it had completed building its USD reserve.

2. What Is Strategy's New Bitcoin Accumulation Strategy?

On June 29, 2026, Strategy announced its Digital Credit Capital Framework, marking a major shift after six years of pursuing its Bitcoin Treasury strategy. If Bitcoin was essentially a one-way asset that was only purchased and accumulated throughout 2020-2025, the new framework officially allows the company to sell part of its BTC under certain conditions.

This is not simply about "Strategy being allowed to sell Bitcoin." It represents a broader change in how the company manages its balance sheet.

The framework revolves around four key pillars:

Maintain a USD Reserve equivalent to at least 12 months of dividend and interest obligations.
Increase the STRC dividend yield to 12% per year.
Launch two share repurchase programs with a combined value of $2 billion.
BTC Monetization Program: Allows the company to sell up to $1.25 billion worth of BTC to strengthen its reserves, meet financial obligations, or repurchase shares.

It is important to note that this is an authorized limit rather than a commitment to sell. BTC sales are considered a last-resort option when other forms of capital raising become less efficient.

Overall, Strategy is moving from a Bitcoin accumulation model toward Bitcoin capital management. When MSTR trades at a favorable valuation, the company can issue shares to acquire more BTC. When the stock trades below the value of its underlying assets, it can prioritize share buybacks and protect liquidity.

This could become a new model for the next generation of Bitcoin Treasury Companies 2.0, while also requiring investors to evaluate Strategy not only by how much BTC it buys, but also by its USD reserves, mNAV, and the potential for BTC selling pressure.

3. The "Buy the Rumor, Sell the News" Pattern Has Become Clear

One of the most notable findings comes from research by Bitwise Europe, which analyzed around 100 Strategy BTC purchase announcements since August 2020:

For the top 10% of the largest transactions, such as the purchase of more than 34,000 BTC in April, BTC prices tended to rise during the two hours before the announcement was officially released, then reverse lower shortly afterward.
In contrast, smaller and medium-sized purchases showed a relatively weak reaction before the announcement but experienced a slight increase after the purchase was confirmed.

In other words, most of the actual buying demand had already been priced in before the company officially announced the purchase. This may be because on-chain transparency allows the market to monitor large wallet movements, or because major trading desks had gained access to the information earlier. By the time the official announcement arrived, there was little surprise left, causing the price reaction to shift toward profit-taking rather than another leg higher.

A typical example: In June this year, Strategy announced the purchase of another 1,550 BTC worth around $101 million, but BTC remained almost unchanged around the $62,600 level. This suggests that the market had largely ignored the news. It is fairly convincing evidence that traders have "learned the pattern" and adjusted their strategies around Strategy's announcement events instead of reacting instinctively as they did in previous years.

4. Has MSTR's Capital-Raising Flywheel Broken Down?

The machine that allowed Strategy to continuously raise money to buy BTC for years operated through a relatively simple cycle:

Issue more shares to raise capital → use the proceeds to buy Bitcoin → rising BTC prices increase the value of the company's assets → MSTR trades at a higher premium relative to the actual value of its BTC holdings → favorable conditions allow the company to issue more shares at better prices → the cycle repeats.

The problem is that since mid-2025, this premium has narrowed significantly. The key metric MSTR investors watch is mNAV (market-to-net-asset-value), which measures the ratio between the company's market value and the net value of the BTC it holds:

Based on pure market capitalization (basic mNAV), the ratio is now only around 0.68-0.70x, meaning MSTR is trading roughly 30% below the implied BTC value per share.
Based on enterprise value, including debt and outstanding preferred shares, mNAV rises to around 1.04-1.06x, close to the breakeven point.

The gap between these two figures shows that the company's overall capital structure, including its debt obligations, is being valued relatively close to the value of its BTC holdings. However, the common equity portion is trading at a significant discount. With the stock trading around $93, MSTR has fallen approximately 74% over the past 12 months and nearly 80% from its summer 2025 peak.

With basic mNAV below 1, issuing new shares to purchase BTC becomes unfavorable because it dilutes existing shareholders instead of creating additional value as it did previously. This is precisely why Strategy launched its BTC Monetization program. By the end of July 2026, the company had sold approximately $218 million worth of Bitcoin, reducing its holdings from around 846,000 BTC to 840,447 BTC. At the same time, the company also used part of the capital it raised to repurchase STRC preferred shares trading at a discount to par value, rather than allocating everything toward additional BTC purchases as it had done previously.

Some analysts have previously warned about the "two-way flow risk": a company once viewed as one of the largest sources of Bitcoin demand in the market could now potentially become a source of supply if financial pressure or dividend obligations force it to sell more BTC.

5. ETF Flows Have Surpassed Strategy in Terms of Market Impact

Another factor gradually diminishing Strategy's influence is the rise of spot Bitcoin ETFs.

Even during Strategy's most aggressive buying period this year, when the company deployed as much as $2.54 billion in a single week to purchase more than 34,000 BTC, net inflows into spot Bitcoin ETFs during the same period also reached around $200-300 million per day, amounting to billions of dollars per week when accumulated.

Recent developments make this even clearer:

August 3-7: Spot Bitcoin ETFs recorded more than $750 million in net inflows, with BlackRock, Fidelity, and Franklin Templeton all adding exposure.
August 14: The market saw a modest net outflow of around $57.6 million.
Week ending August 15: Combined Bitcoin and Ethereum ETF flows recorded $1.1 billion in net inflows, ending the outflow streak that had continued since the beginning of the year. BlackRock's IBIT accounted for around 80% of total inflows.
Total net assets held by spot Bitcoin ETFs currently stand at around $76.6 billion, with cumulative net inflows of approximately $51.8 billion since these funds began trading in January 2024.

At this scale, just a few days of significant ETF flow changes can create an impact equivalent to or even greater than Strategy's monthly purchases. The market now has multiple institutional channels for gaining Bitcoin exposure, meaning Strategy no longer holds the position of the "only major buyer" that it once had.

Sentiment in the derivatives market also reflects this growing "immunity":

The Fear and Greed Index currently sits around 38/100, indicating mild fear rather than euphoria.
Bitcoin futures open interest is hovering around 750,000 BTC, equivalent to approximately $48 billion in notional value.

Relatively thin derivatives liquidity compared with the size of open positions means sharp volatility can still occur. However, overall, the market is increasingly treating Strategy's purchases as a normal event rather than a special catalyst that requires an immediate repricing of risk.

6. Does the Supply Squeeze Effect Still Exist?

There is no denying that long-term Bitcoin accumulation by a company as prominent as Strategy has a certain impact on circulating supply. The share of BTC held by corporations has increased from around 1% to more than 4% over the past two years, while Strategy alone currently controls around 4% of the total Bitcoin supply with 840,447 BTC, worth approximately $54 billion at current market prices.

In theory, having this amount of BTC locked up for the long term reduces the amount of available supply for other investors.

However, this supply squeeze effect is being offset by several countervailing forces:

Bitcoin miners continue to produce around 450 BTC per day, creating natural selling pressure worth tens of billions of dollars each year.
Arbitrage activity between ETFs and the spot market also increases the amount of BTC effectively circulating through the market.
The number of active Bitcoin addresses currently fluctuates around 667,000, showing that the network remains healthy but has yet to see signs of explosive new demand.

A more accurate way to understand this may be that sustained accumulation can push the price level required to attract sufficient sellers higher over time. However, this is a process that unfolds over weeks or even months, rather than an immediate consequence of a single purchase announcement.

7. How Should Investors Evaluate Strategy News?

Instead of immediately buying whenever Michael Saylor posts a signal such as "Bitcoin Drive Engaged," traders should cross-check five factors:

The size of the transaction relative to available spot market liquidity.
The time gap between the actual purchase and the official announcement.
The source of funding for the transaction, whether through equity issuance, debt, or cash.
Funding rates and open interest across the derivatives market.
The broader macro environment, including ETF flows, interest rate expectations, and overall risk sentiment.

A practical approach is to monitor two sets of data simultaneously:

BTC/USDT spot market: trading volume, order book depth, and nearby resistance levels to assess the sustainability of a price move.
Perpetual futures: compare the derivatives market to determine whether the rally is being driven by genuine demand or simply by leveraged positions.

Rising spot demand combined with moderate funding rates generally reflects broader and more sustainable participation. Meanwhile, a sharp increase in open interest accompanied by highly positive funding can create the risk of widespread long liquidations if the price reverses.

Conclusion

Strategy's Bitcoin purchases are no longer a "nuclear catalyst" capable of shaping the entire price trend on their own as they could during the 2020-2024 period. Instead, they are gradually becoming a normal institutional event within the broader 2026 market structure.

That said, Strategy remains an important part of Bitcoin's supply structure, with around 4% of the total supply held for the long term. However, the real drivers of Bitcoin price discovery today are increasingly tied to Federal Reserve interest rate decisions and ETF flows rather than any individual purchase announcement from Michael Saylor.

For traders, the key is not to react to the headline itself, but to cross-check the news against liquidity, derivatives data, and the broader macro environment before making a decision.

Disclaimer: This content does not constitute investment, tax, legal, financial, or accounting advice. MEXC Blog provides this information for educational purposes only. Always do your own research, understand the risks, and invest responsibly.

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