Is Bitcoin a better investment than gold right now?
There is the theoretical possibility that at this precise historical moment Bitcoin could be a better investment than gold.
Although this is only a hypothesis, it is nonetheless supported by some data that make it at least plausible, even if not necessarily probable.
However, to understand this reasoning it is necessary to stop thinking like classic retail investors or speculators (who are guided more by emotions and intuition than by reasoning and data), and to analyze the current situation in the most objective and least biased way possible.
Rise and fall of gold
In the first months of 2024, when it became clear that Donald Trump was heavily favored to win the Republican Party primaries, the price of gold started to rise.
Over the course of two months it went from $2,030 an ounce to $2,360, setting what was then the new all-time high.
Note that a little more than two years have passed since then, and it has since gone on to record many other all-time highs.
In July it started to rise again, and in October it recorded a new all-time high at almost $2,800 an ounce.
With Trump’s inauguration at the White House for his second term, which began in January 2025, the price of gold resumed its rise, reaching $3,500 an ounce in just four months.
Then starting in August a real speculative mini-bubble began to inflate on the price of gold, lasting about five and a half months, and thanks to it the price went on to record the new all-time high above $5,600 an ounce in January of this year.
But then that mini-bubble burst.
The current situation of gold
Yesterday, for a brief moment, the price of gold fell back below $4,300 an ounce, but the downward trend that began shortly before mid-March may not yet be over.
The mini-bubble last year started to inflate once the psychological barrier of $3,500 an ounce was forcefully broken, but now that it has burst the price has remained well above that threshold.
It took about five and a half months to rise from $3,500 to the all-time highs, but the overall upward trend actually lasted a full seven months. Instead, the downward trend that began in mid-March has so far lasted only three and a half months, so it could continue for weeks.
If it were to continue, it would not be surprising if the price ended up returning more or less to the same point from which the mini-bubble began to inflate, namely $3,500 an ounce. Furthermore, it should be remembered that the upward trend that has lasted for more than two years started just above $2,000 an ounce.
Note that speculative mini-bubbles often behave exactly like this: they inflate, burst, and then bring everything back to how it was before without leaving any after-effects.
Rise and fall of Bitcoin
Bitcoin has followed a different trajectory.
Between the end of 2024 and the end of 2025 as many as two speculative mini-bubbles inflated.
The first was triggered by the Trump trade at the end of 2024, after his election victory, and took it from just under $70,000 to almost $110,000.
The second was triggered starting in April 2025, lasted until October of the same year, and led it to record the new all-time high at $126,000.
Starting from the second week of October the mini-bubble burst, and although that burst was already over shortly after mid-November, there was then a second one, in the second half of January 2026, which lasted until the first half of February and ended up bringing the price of BTC back below $70,000.
Since then it has tried to rebound, but the rebound at the end of May failed.
The current situation of Bitcoin
Practically from February until today the price trend of Bitcoin has been moving sideways within a range between $60,000 and $80,000, with rare exceptions above and below these psychological thresholds.
This is a sideways movement with high volatility, which therefore can escape many superficial or short-term analyses.
Note that between March and October 2024, before Trump’s election victory, its price fluctuated between $55,000 and $71,000, with rare exceptions above and below that threshold, so the current sideways movement is actually taking place in a higher price range.
However, if we also take into account the loss of real value of the US dollar over the last two years, the current sideways movement is taking place in a price range only slightly higher than that of 2024.
The same argument highlighted earlier regarding mini-bubbles also applies to Bitcoin: the price has now returned more or less to the same starting levels.
Gold vs. Bitcoin
In other words, the downward trend of Bitcoin seems to have possibly run its course, while that of gold has not.
If things really were like this (but it is only a hypothesis), at this specific moment buying gold might not necessarily be a good idea.
In fact, in the hypothetical case that its downward trend were to continue to $3,500 an ounce, this might not be the best time to invest in gold.
On the other hand, with a Bitcoin price below $70,000 it might also be a good time to buy, again in the hypothetical case that there are no further declines. However, it should be remembered that during the years of major bear markets, such as 2018 and 2022, Bitcoin generally records its lowest price peaks in the last quarter of the year.
Note that during the recent drop back below $70,000, many retail investors sold Bitcoin, and some of these coins were bought by whales on exchanges and already withdrawn to their non-custodial wallets.
Moreover, already between February and March of this year, when the price was still below $70,000, other whales had slightly increased their investments in BTC.
Therefore there is the theoretical possibility that at this precise historical moment Bitcoin could be a better investment than gold, even if this, in the current state of affairs, is only a hypothesis still lacking confirmation.
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