Bulls Need Break Above $97,000 Or Risk Renewed Downside

• Bitcoin rebounds from $85K but remains capped under a declining trendline and key Fibonacci resistance near $97K.
• Spot flows stay negative, signaling distribution rather than accumulation as liquidity remains thin after October’s wipeout.
• Fed policy risk drives position shifting, but upside requires volume and a decisive break above major resistance zones.

Bitcoin price today trades near $91,300 after recovering from the early December low near $85,000, but the rebound remains capped beneath a declining trendline that has rejected every upside attempt since late October. The recovery comes as traders anticipate the Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of the year and a spike in jobless claims that could influence the policy outlook.

Buyers Push Price Toward Fibonacci Levels But Structure Remains Fragile

On the daily chart, Bitcoin is trading inside a contracting structure that has formed across lower highs and higher lows. Price is testing the underside of the descending trendline near $92,000 while sitting around the 0.382 retracement at $90,811, a zone that has acted as short-term support across several sessions. A break above $93,995, the 0.5 retracement, would mark the first sign of trend strength, but that level has repeatedly rejected rallies.

Above price, the 0.618 retracement at $97,179 aligns with a broader supply zone created during previous distribution, turning it into a significant barrier. As long as Bitcoin remains beneath that level, the recovery looks tactical rather than structural.

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The Supertrend indicator at $98,103 reinforces that ceiling. Sellers defended this level during November’s failed breakout attempts and forced the market back into the current consolidation. A decisive close above the Supertrend would flip sentiment toward a trend reversal.

Spot Outflows Show Distribution As Liquidity Remains Thin

Spot flows remain negative, but the size of recent moves has compressed. According to Coinglass data, Bitcoin recorded roughly $230,240 in net outflows on December 8, a small figure compared to the heavy red prints seen across October and November, when single sessions regularly exceeded $200 million.

The reduction in outflow magnitude indicates that liquidation pressure has eased, but it has not flipped into sustained accumulation. Positioning remains cautious, with capital drifting out rather than moving in with conviction.

Short Term Momentum Improves But Resistance Cluster Limits Upside

On the 4-hour chart, Bitcoin is attempting to build a base above a rising channel that has guided price since late November. Intraday momentum has improved, with price recovering above the 20-day EMA at $90,403 and testing the 50-day EMA at $90,978. The 100-day EMA at $92,203 marks the immediate barrier, while the 200-day EMA at $94,277 remains the level that would define a legitimate shift in trend direction.

The Bollinger Bands show compression after a volatility spike, indicating energy build-up ahead of a directional move. If price clears the 100-day EMA, bands are likely to widen upward. A failure would reintroduce selling pressure toward the lower channel boundary near $88,300.

RSI on the daily sits near 47, showing neutrality rather than exhaustion, which leaves room for both sides to dictate the next move.

Macro Catalyst Drives Position Shifting Into Fed Week

Bitcoin is recovering into a week dominated by the Federal Reserve’s final rate decision of the year and a jobless-claims report expected to show a sharp increase. Economists are forecasting a rise of 30,000 claims from the previous 191,000 print, a shift that strengthens expectations for a first rate cut as the Fed wraps up quantitative tightening.

After the $19 billion leverage wipeout in October, liquidity never fully returned. Market makers remain cautious, and order books still show reduced depth. As one investor told Decrypt, “order books were wiped out, and market makers are shy to jump back in in size.” This backdrop explains why rallies have been shallow and reactive, not trend-driven.

Institutional desks are also adjusting treasury strategies around the policy turn. Michael Wu of Amber Group said funding spreads and borrow costs are moving in lockstep with rate guidance, causing desks to diversify liquidity across CeFi and DeFi venues to isolate volatility. This shift reflects a defensive adjustment, not speculative positioning.

The performance gap between Bitcoin and metals has reinforced that caution. Gold and silver have returned 60 percent and 86 percent this year, while Bitcoin sits at negative 1.2 percent, according to recent data. Traders are treating metals as hedges against a policy error, while Bitcoin remains tied to liquidity swings rather than macro protection.

Some investors expect the tone to change quickly if the Fed acts. Ryan McMillin of Merkle Tree Capital said the decision to end QT and a potential cut could set the market up to rally, adding “the rate cut might be the catalyst for that to start.”

Bitcoin’s current recovery is therefore driven less by strong demand and more by position adjustment into high-impact policy risk. Until flows expand and liquidity deepens, macro optimism remains a narrative, not a bid.

Outlook. Will Bitcoin Go Up?

The bullish case requires a close above $97,000 with improving flows and volume. That would break the trendline, shift structure from compression to expansion, and open the path toward $104,000.

The bearish case activates if price loses $88,000, confirming that buyers failed to defend support. That breakdown exposes deeper correction toward $86,800 and $80,500.