XRP faces $2 test: $1.3B outflows vs. weak network usage

The altcoin market is still hunting for a bottom.

With the Altcoin Season Index dropping back to mid-July territory, investor appetite for “high-risk, high-reward” plays is clearly fading.

In this kind of tape, holding major support levels becomes crucial for high-beta names.

XRP is feeling that pressure too. Since the October washout, it has lost the $2 floor twice, failing to reclaim the key levels needed for a clean V-shaped recovery. In short, the chart shows a bearish market structure.

That said, this kind of structure has historically preceded accumulation.

Case in point: Earlier this year, XRP spent Q1 and Q2 chopping sideways before a late-June breakout triggered a parabolic move to its multi-year high at $3.60, showing how prolonged consolidation can fuel strong upside.

A similar pattern seems to be forming now. 

Over the past month, $1.3 billion in XRP has left exchanges, with reserves dropping from $7.03 billion to $5.70 billion.

Against this backdrop, could Ripple’s ongoing sideways chop be setting the stage for the next big move?

Strong XRP demand meets weak fundamentals

Q4 kicked off with Ripple ETF buzz, and the momentum is starting to show.

So far, ETF clients have snapped up $8.73 million worth of XRP, bringing total ETF-held net assets to $945.49 million.

Structurally, this adds another layer of support to XRP as it navigates its current consolidation phase.

That said, on-chain activity tells a different story. The Total Fees Paid per Day on XRP have fallen from 5.9k/day in early February to just 650 XRP/day, marking an 89% drop to levels not seen since December 2020.

Put simply, the gap between fundamentals and market activity is widening.

While institutional flows are providing support, declining on-chain activity implies muted organic demand.

Backing this, XRPL’s TVL has dropped to $70 million, showing that on-chain liquidity on the network is tightening.

Taken together, these factors suggest that XRP’s recent accumulation is more speculative than fundamentally driven.

As a result, weak on-chain activity on XRPL could keep it range-bound until network usage rebounds.

Final Thoughts

• XRP has lost the $2 floor twice and shows a bearish chart structure, yet historical sideways consolidation often precedes accumulation.
• However, on-chain fees and TVL are sharply declining, suggesting weak organic demand and keeping XRP range-bound.