Solana (SOL) Price: Is a Breakout Coming After Four Weeks Stuck in the Same Range?

TLDR

• Solana (SOL) has traded in a tight $77–$88 range for nearly four weeks with no clear trend direction
• US spot Solana ETFs recorded over $44 million in weekly inflows, with cumulative inflows surpassing $900 million
• SOL futures Open Interest dropped over 6% in 24 hours, with $26.47 million in liquidations, mostly long positions
• Bollinger Bands are squeezing, signaling a potential volatility breakout in either direction
• Daily new Solana addresses rose by 1.4 million over 12 days, reaching 8.6 million, showing network growth

Solana (SOL) is trading around $84–$85 as of March 2, 2026, stuck in a consolidation range it has held for nearly four weeks. The price has bounced between $77 and $88 repeatedly without a decisive break in either direction.

Despite the flat price action, institutional interest has held firm. US spot Solana ETFs recorded $44.44 million in weekly inflows last week, including $30.86 million in a single day on Wednesday.

Cumulative ETF inflows for the year have now surpassed $900 million. February saw more than 12 consecutive days of net inflows, even as Bitcoin and Ethereum ETFs recorded outflows during the same period.

Retail sentiment tells a different story. SOL futures Open Interest fell over 6% in 24 hours to $4.89 billion, pointing to traders closing positions.

Total liquidations hit $26.47 million in that same window, with $20.47 million coming from long positions. That points to a broad wipe of bullish bets.

Despite the liquidations, the funding rate sits at 0.0037–0.0041%, meaning leveraged traders are still paying a premium to hold long positions.

Key Technical Levels

SOL remains below its 50-day and 200-day Exponential Moving Averages, currently at $99.06 and $137.23. These levels are acting as overhead resistance.

The RSI sits at around 43, below the neutral midline of 50. The MACD histogram shows weakening bearish momentum but no bullish crossover yet.

Bollinger Bands are converging on the daily chart. This kind of squeeze often comes before a sharp price move, though the direction is not yet confirmed.

Analyst Umair Crypto noted a contrast between SOL’s USDT and BTC trading pairs. The USDT chart shows lower highs, while the BTC pair shows higher highs — a split that has lasted 24 days.

On-Chain Data Shows Network Growth

On-chain data from Glassnode shows daily new Solana addresses rose by 1.4 million over the past 12 days, reaching a total of 8.6 million. This suggests growing user engagement on the network.

Long-term holders are still in net positive territory, though the pace of accumulation has slowed. Hodler net position change data shows resilience but reduced buying momentum.

If SOL clears $88 and then $93.43, the next target is the 50-day EMA near $99. A close above that opens the path toward $137.

If the price breaks below $77, the next support sits at the February 6 low of $67.50.

SOL’s trading volume dropped 5.77% to $12.20 billion, with Open Interest also down 3.73% to $4.88 billion as of the latest data.

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