Robinhood (HOOD) Stock: One Firm Still Sees 80% Upside After the Crash

TLDR

• Bernstein reiterates an Outperform rating on HOOD with a $130 price target, citing crypto recovery and prediction markets growth.
• HOOD stock is down 53% from its 52-week high of $153.86, currently trading around $69–$71.
• Bernstein’s 2026 revenue estimate is 9% above consensus, with EPS projections 16% higher; crypto revenue forecast is 31% above consensus.
• Multiple analysts have cut price targets, including Morgan Stanley (to $95), Truist (to $100), and Mizuho (to $105), though most maintain Buy or Outperform ratings.
• CEO Vladimir Tenev and other insiders have sold nearly 470,000 worth of stock over the past three months, while institutional investor Robeco boosted its stake by 83%.

Robinhood Markets (HOOD) has had a rough stretch. The stock has dropped more than 53% from its 52-week high of $153.86 and is currently trading around $69–$71. That is a steep fall for a company that was riding high on a wave of crypto enthusiasm and retail trading momentum not long ago.

Robinhood Markets, Inc., HOOD

Bernstein SocGen Group is not walking away, though. The firm reiterated its Outperform rating and $130 price target on Monday, standing well above where the stock is now. Their thesis rests on two pillars: a recovery in crypto markets and growth in prediction markets revenue.

Bernstein’s numbers are notably more optimistic than the street. Their 2026 revenue estimate sits 9% above consensus, with EPS projections 16% higher. On the crypto side, they are forecasting 31% above consensus for 2026 revenue from that segment. The firm also believes the weak Q1 2026 print is already priced in.

The broader analyst community is more cautious. Morgan Stanley cut its price target from $147 to $95 and moved to an equal weight rating. Truist trimmed its target from $120 to $100, while Mizuho cut from $135 to $105. Cantor Fitzgerald lowered its target from $130 to $100. Citizens moved from $180 to $155. Despite the cuts, the consensus across 25 analysts remains a “Moderate Buy” with an average price target of $110.25.

Keefe, Bruyette & Woods initiated coverage with a more cautious market perform rating and a $75 target — closer to where the stock is trading now. Zacks went further, downgrading HOOD to a strong sell.

Insider Selling Raises Eyebrows

The insider activity has not helped sentiment. Over the past three months, insiders sold a combined 469,239 worth of stock for roughly $34.16 million. CEO Vladimir Tenev sold 375,000 worth alone. CTO Jeffrey Pinner sold around 5,835. Director Daniel Gallagher sold 10,000. All transactions were conducted under pre-arranged Rule 10b5-1 plans.

Insiders still hold about 19.95% of the company, and not all the news on the ownership front is negative. Cathie Wood’s ARK Invest bought HOOD stock in a multi-million dollar purchase. Robeco Institutional Asset Management boosted its stake by 83% during Q4, acquiring an additional 474,081 worth of stock to hold just over 1 million worth valued at roughly $118 million.

What the Numbers Say

HOOD’s Q4 earnings beat on the bottom line — $0.66 EPS versus the $0.63 estimate — but missed on revenue at $1.28 billion against an expected $1.32 billion. Revenue was still up 26.5% year over year.

The company grew its retail trading revenue share to 14% in 2025, up from 11% in 2024, expanding into crypto and prediction markets. HOOD now represents 4% of total broking revenue in the addressable market.

The stock has a 50-day moving average of $75.27 and a 200-day moving average of $107.80. It hit a 52-week low of $39.21 earlier in its recent downturn. The market cap sits at around $62.29 billion with a P/E ratio of 33.59.

One positive development came from Washington: Robinhood was selected alongside BNY Mellon to manage the U.S. Treasury’s “Trump Accounts” child savings program, a potential long-term customer acquisition channel. That is the most recent piece of news to watch.

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