This is a technical analysis post by CoinDesk analyst and Chartered Market Technician Omkar Godbole.

Have you ever seen a dam release its water? All that pent-up water crashes down in a unstoppable flood.

That's what typically happens in markets when a long-held price support finally gives way, unleashing disgruntled holders who flood the market with supply, overwhelming buyers and driving prices sharply lower.

XRP's support breakdown

The above description fits perfectly with payments-focused cryptocurrency XRP, whose prices have finally established a foothold below the long-held $2.00 support.

Since January this year, prices dipped below that level several times but never stayed there for more than two daily candles, quickly rebounding in a V-shaped recovery as shown in the chart below.

But now it appears to have found solid footing: prices fell below $2.00 on Sunday and have stayed there since, marking a true technical breakdown of this key level. XRP is used by fintech company Ripple to facilitate cross-border transactions.

Bearish signals pile up

Other indicators back the bearish outlook. For instance, the widely tracked 50-, 100-, and 200-day simple moving averages (SMAs) are all trending lower, showing bearish momentum in both short- and long-term trends.

The MACD histogram, an indicator used to gauge momentum and trend changes, keeps printing deeper bars below the zero line, signaling strengthening downside pressure.

The support break, coupled with bearish moving averages, points to potential for a further decline toward $1.63, the 61.8% Fibonacci retracement of XRP's bull market rally from the 2024 low of 43 cents to the 2025 record high of $3.66.

The 61.8% ratio has its origins in the Fibonacci sequence and is known as the Golden Ratio, frequently appearing in natural and human-made structures, defining balance and proportion. In markets, the ratio is closely watched as a significant area of support.

While the technical picture looks bearish for XRP, investors might want to keep an eye on Thursday's U.S. inflation data. Softer-than-expected numbers could spark "risk-on" mood across markets, boosting XRP and crypto higher

When bullish revival?

XRP has been in a steady downtrend since July, with each price bounce weaker than the one before.

The bulls need to break this pattern to regain a positive outlook. That means prices must rise above the $2.27 high from the last weak bounce in late November.