DBM’s Toledo sees 2026 growth at ‘midpoint’ of 5-6% target

GROWTH in 2026 is expected to come in at “the midpoint” of the government’s 5-6% official target band, the Department of Budget and Management (DBM) said.

The government is projecting the gross domestic product (GDP) growth to “settle around the midpoint of the target range,” Acting Budget Secretary Rolando U. Toledo said in a statement on Jan. 23, when asked if it the upper end of band is achievable.

Mr. Toledo, who chairs the Development Budget Coordination Committee, said while growth expectations for 2026 have been moderated, “the economic managers view this period as an opportunity to recalibrate policy priorities.”

In particular, he referred to strengthening the formulation and updating of integrated sectoral master plans, particularly in infrastructure.

“This is intended to improve the quality, sequencing, and fiscal discipline of public spending,” Mr. Toledo said.

Economy Secretary Arsenio M. Balisacan said economic growth may have slowed to between 4.8% and 5% in 2025, prompting the scaling back of growth targets. The economy had slowed in the wake of the infrastructure corruption scandal, which triggered a review of many public-works projects.

The Philippine Statistics Authority will release fourth-quarter and 2025 GDP data on Jan. 29.

Mr. Toledo said the government is continuing to bolster oversight and monitoring mechanisms, including expanded use of real-time project tracking and automated geo-tagging of infrastructure projects.

“The FY 2026 budget reflects the need to balance development priorities with fiscal constraints, resulting in difficult trade-offs during budget preparation,” he said.

The ASEAN+3 Macroeconomic Research Office (AMRO) projected that higher tariffs may threaten the Philippines’ private investment outlook.

“Private investment sentiment and exports are clouded by US tariff uncertainty, and public investment may continue to be dampened by flood control controversies,” AMRO Chief Economist Dong He said in an e-mailed statement to BusinessWorld last week.

Meanwhile, domestic demand is expected to slow in the first half of the year, but should recover by the second.

Despite this, Mr. He sees no pose persistent risks to the economic outlook of 5.3% growth in 2026. — Aubrey Rose A. Inosante