PI Trades in Downtrend as Supply Unlocks Near February Peak

• Lower-timeframe bearish structure keeps PI rallies capped despite brief rebounds
• Upcoming PI token unlocks elevate near-term supply risk and pressure sentiments
• Real-world adoption progress may buffer downside but unlikely to offset short-term selling

Pi (PI) continues to trade under pressure as technical weakness on lower timeframes collides with upcoming token unlocks. On the 4-hour chart, PI shows a sustained bearish structure, with sellers still controlling price action despite a short-lived rebound. Consequently, traders remain cautious while watching whether growing real-world adoption can offset near-term supply risks.

Bearish Structure Keeps Rallies Capped

PI remains locked in a short-term downtrend, trading below all major exponential moving averages on the four-hour timeframe. Besides confirming bearish momentum, this alignment signals that recent upside attempts lack strength. The rebound from the $0.146 to $0.150 demand zone appeared corrective and failed to attract meaningful follow-through.

Market structure reinforces this view. PI has printed a clear sequence of lower highs and lower lows since its rejection near $0.21. Additionally, momentum indicators show sellers consistently defending overhead levels. Supertrend signals remain negative, with rallies attracting selling interest rather than fresh demand.

Immediate resistance sits around $0.164 to $0.165, where price continues to stall. Above that zone, $0.171 to $0.172 represents a key Fibonacci supply area. Consequently, analysts expect initial rejection if price tests that region. 

Stronger resistance appears between $0.179 and $0.180, followed by trend-defining resistance near $0.187. A sustained move above that level would help stabilize the structure.

On the downside, $0.158 to $0.160 acts as near-term support. However, failure to hold this area raises the probability of another test of the $0.150 to $0.147 range low.

Token Unlocks Add Supply Risk

Token supply dynamics add another layer of pressure. Piscan data shows over 5.08 billion PI currently locked, valued near $820 million. Moreover, roughly 215.6 million PI is scheduled to unlock over the next 30 days. That figure represents about 4.24% of locked supply.

Related: Dogecoin Price Prediction: Musk Moon Comment Falls Flat As DOGE Struggles To Hold $0.10

Daily unlocks average more than 7.18 million PI, worth around $1.16 million. Significantly, the largest single-day unlock, expected on February 13, could release over 23.6 million PI into circulation. Hence, traders remain alert to potential sell pressure around that period.

Adoption Narrative Offers Long-Term Support

However, Pi Network continues to push its real-world utility narrative. The project recently enabled PI payments on Mobix, a platform supporting purchases of electronics, vehicles, and consumer goods. Additionally, this integration aligns with Pi Network’s ongoing open mainnet migration.

Technical Outlook for Pi (PI) Price

Key levels remain clearly defined for Pi heading into the near-term trading window. 

On the upside, $0.164–$0.165 acts as the first hurdle, where short-term EMAs cluster. A clean break above this zone could open a move toward $0.171–$0.172, followed by $0.179–$0.180. The $0.187–$0.188 level remains the critical resistance to flip for any medium-term stabilization. 

On the downside, $0.158–$0.160 serves as immediate support. Failure to hold this area risks a retest of the $0.150–$0.147 demand zone. A breakdown below $0.146 would expose PI to lower liquidity pockets. The technical structure shows PI trending lower within a bearish channel, where rallies continue to face selling pressure. 

Will Pi Go Up? 

Pi’s price outlook depends on whether buyers can defend $0.158 long enough to challenge the $0.172–$0.180 resistance cluster. Until PI reclaims $0.187 with volume support, the bias remains sell-the-bounce. Increased volatility is likely as price compresses between support and resistance.