Saylor’s Strategy Shows Confidence While Whale Metrics Reach June 2022 Levels

Michael Saylor’s latest comments offered a rare look into how one of Bitcoin’s most influential corporate holders is preparing for the future. On Feb. 15, he explained that Strategy intends to equitize its convertible debt gradually over the next three to six years. This means the firm aims to shift obligations away from pure repayment pressure and toward equity-based restructuring.

At the same time, Strategy stated it could survive an extreme Bitcoin drawdown to $8,000 while still holding enough assets to fully cover its debt. That figure is far below current market levels, making the statement less about prediction and more about resilience.

This approach reflects how large institutions now treat Bitcoin exposure. Rather than acting as short-term speculators, firms like Strategy position themselves for multi-year cycles, accepting volatility as part of the structure. Saylor’s remarks also reinforce the idea that corporate Bitcoin holders are planning beyond price swings, focusing instead on balance sheet endurance.

New Bitcoin Whales Face Pressure, But the Decline Is Slower Than 2022

CryptoQuant recently highlighted stress building among Bitcoin’s newer whale investors. During the latest market drop, the Unrealized Profit Ratio (UPR) for new whales reached -0.30. This level was last seen after an all-time high in June 2022, a period marked by sharp collapses across the crypto industry.

The key difference today is timing. In 2022, the UPR fell into negative territory rapidly, reaching -0.30 within about six weeks as events like the Luna collapse and the failure of major funds accelerated panic. This time, the same level took more than three months to develop.

Ki Young Ju, CEO of CryptoQuant, noted that the intensity is similar, but the pace has been gradual rather than sudden. That slower decline may suggest the market is digesting pressure more steadily instead of unraveling in a single shock event.

Long-Term Holder Losses Could Mark the Next Turning Point

Joao Wedson, Founder and CEO of Alphractal, pointed to another key cycle indicator: Net Unrealized Profit/Loss (NUPL) for long-term holders. This metric tracks whether Bitcoin’s most resilient investors are sitting on unrealized gains or losses.

Currently, the long-term holder NUPL stands at 0.36, meaning this group remains in profit on average. Wedson argues that the most important signal comes when this value turns negative. At that stage, even the strongest hands are holding losses, which historically aligns with maximum market depression.

Past cycles show that this is often when selling pressure fades, coins move to stronger holders, and the foundation for the next bull run begins. The message is clear: major opportunities tend to emerge not at market highs, but in the deepest periods of doubt.

Also Read: Bitcoin Speculation Grows After Michael Saylor’s “Back to Orange” Message