Bitcoin: Here Is Where We Are in the Cycle, According to On-Chain Analyst

On-chain analyst Axel Adler Jr published a Bitcoin NUPL-MVRV Harmonic Composite reading of 0.33 on March 7, placing Bitcoin in what he describes as the intermediate phase of the current market cycle.

Historical cyclical bottoms began near negative 0.50, meaning the current reading sits well above the zone where prior bear market lows were confirmed.

What the Indicator Measures

The NUPL-MVRV Harmonic Composite combines two widely used on-chain valuation metrics. NUPL, or Net Unrealized Profit and Loss, measures the aggregate unrealized profit or loss across all Bitcoin holders as a proportion of market cap.

MVRV, or Market Value to Realized Value, compares Bitcoin’s current market capitalization to the aggregate cost basis of all coins in circulation. Combining them into a single composite smooths the noise of each individual metric and produces a cleaner cycle positioning signal.

The chart runs from 2013 through early 2026. The composite index is shown in orange and red, with the green shaded zone above 0.8 representing historical cycle tops and the pink shaded zone below zero representing historical cycle bottoms. The black line tracks Bitcoin price on a logarithmic scale.

Prior cycle bottoms are visible as the deep red and pink spikes below zero, occurring in 2015, 2019, and 2022. Each of those dips to negative 0.50 or below preceded the next bull market phase. The current reading of 0.33 sits in the orange zone, above the neutral line and well below the green top zone.

The Upward Shift in Cycle Lows

Adler notes that the chart shows an upward shift in cycle lows over time. The 2015 bottom dipped far deeper into negative territory than the 2019 bottom, which dipped deeper than the 2022 bottom. Each successive capitulation extreme has been less severe than the prior one. The 2022 bottom, visible as a modest pink spike compared to the 2015 extreme, reached approximately negative 0.50 before recovering.

If that pattern continues, the next cyclical bottom, whenever it arrives, may not reach the historical negative 0.50 threshold at all. That possibility matters for investors waiting for extreme fear readings as a buy signal. A market that bottoms at negative 0.20 rather than negative 0.50 would look significantly less extreme on historical comparisons while still representing a genuine cycle low.

What 0.33 Actually Means

At 0.33 the composite sits roughly halfway between the neutral zero line and the historical top zone above 0.80. That positioning is consistent with a mid-cycle environment where the market has recovered from its lows but has not entered the euphoric final phase that preceded prior peaks.

Full market capitulation is not yet confirmed, as Adler states directly. But the current reading also does not indicate imminent top conditions. The intermediate phase is exactly what the label suggests: a market in transition between the fear of the prior correction and the greed of the next peak, with no clear catalyst yet determining which direction resolves first.

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