Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

888 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Prediction-market activity explodes in Q3 with volumes exceeding $3 billion

Prediction-market activity explodes in Q3 with volumes exceeding $3 billion

The post Prediction-market activity explodes in Q3 with volumes exceeding $3 billion appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets went absolutely parabolic last quarter. Kalshi and Polymarket just posted record-shattering numbers in the third quarter of 2025, with over $3 billion in notional volume, more than five times what they saw this time last year. The mania has topped even the madness of the 2024 US presidential election, and the surge has Wall Street’s CME Group and Intercontinental Exchange pushing their way in. According to data from Bloomberg, both platforms crossed $2 billion in the week ending October 19, the most they’ve ever seen. The rally was mainly driven by a wave of sports betting, mostly through New York‑based Kalshi, which used its federal license to offer bets nationwide, ignoring state gambling regulators. Kalshi’s contract volumes surged after football season kicked off in August and September, and users flooded in, especially retail traders from Robinhood, thanks to a new partnership. On the other side, Polymarket, still closed to US traders after infamous fights with regulators, saw a similar jump in traffic as crypto degens and political bettors found new events to bet on. Kalshi leverages Robinhood crowd as football spikes trading Football bets dominated the week of October 19, pulling in $867 million on Kalshi and $415 million on Polymarket. Kalshi gained an edge by offering parlays, allowing users to bet on several low-odds events at once. In prediction markets, every contract pays either $0 or $1 when the event ends. Dune Analytics user dunedata tracked the public numbers, counting only one side of each trade to make the two exchanges comparable. Kalshi’s data came from its own filings, which spokesperson Claire McManus confirmed were accurate. Meanwhile, Polymarket’s data was gotten from its public blockchain, after Rachel Lowe, speaking on behalf of the team, called the data there “the best available publicly,” while adding that there are “always nuances…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Jupiter launches beta version of new prediction market

Jupiter launches beta version of new prediction market

Solana DEX aggregator Jupiter announces the launch of a beta version of its new prediction market supported by Kalshi. The first test market involves the Mexico Grand Prix. In a recent post, the Solana decentralized exchange Jupiter announced that has…

Author: Crypto.news
Prediction Markets: Finance’s Next Frontier?

Prediction Markets: Finance’s Next Frontier?

The post Prediction Markets: Finance’s Next Frontier? appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets are rapidly transforming from crypto curiosities into serious financial infrastructure — yet regulators still can’t decide whether they’re innovation or gambling. Massachusetts’ 2025 lawsuit against Kalshi over NFL contracts, despite prior CFTC approval, underscored the widening gap between state and federal oversight. Meanwhile, Intercontinental Exchange’s (ICE) multi-billion-dollar investment in Polymarket pushed event-driven trading into mainstream finance. Once dismissed as “legalized gambling,” prediction markets now attract institutional capital as regulators race to define where speculation ends and financial innovation begins. Sponsored Sponsored Federal vs. State Law: Who Sets the Line? To assess whether these markets mark the next phase of financial innovation or remain high-stakes speculation, BeInCrypto spoke with Rachel Lin (SynFutures), Juan Pellicer (Sentora), and Leo Chan (Sportstensor). Each offered distinct views on the legal and economic forces shaping prediction markets as 2026 approaches. Massachusetts’ challenge to Kalshi’s NFL contracts exposed a conflict between federal and state oversight. The CFTC had approved the contracts, but the state classified them as unlicensed gambling — a dispute now defining how event markets fit within US law. “Investors should ultimately trust the federal CFTC framework, which preempts state laws on derivatives and explicitly approved Kalshi’s NFL contracts. That provides nationwide clarity amid ongoing state challenges,” said Juan Pellicer, Head of Research at Sentora. Leo Chan, CEO of Sportstensor, added that fragmented state-level rules have already created confusion in sports-betting oversight and said consistent federal guidance would restore clarity for both platforms and participants. Both executives agreed that a uniform regulatory framework is essential for institutional adoption. Volume vs. Value: The Real Indicator of Market Health Industry data from Dune shows that weekly trading across major platforms has recently topped $2 billion, with Kalshi holding roughly 60% of the market and Polymarket holding about 35%, $1.3 billion and $773 million, respectively, as…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction Markets Surge Past US Election Trading Highs

Prediction Markets Surge Past US Election Trading Highs

The post Prediction Markets Surge Past US Election Trading Highs appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Key Points: Prediction market trading volumes exceed peaks from past U.S. elections. Kalshi reports volumes breaking $1B in contracts traded. Active community and institutional involvement are highlighting market relevance. Last week’s prediction market trading volume surpassed previous records set during the U.S. presidential election, as reported by Dune Analytics through BlockBeats News on October 21. This surge in trading highlights increasing interest in prediction markets, potentially impacting cryptocurrency liquidity and indicating heightened market engagement, as platforms like Kalshi and Polymarket experience unprecedented volumes. Record $1B Traded: Massive Market Engagement Last week, Dune Analytics data indicated that prediction market trading volumes surpassed peaks observed during previous U.S. presidential election cycles. Kalshi, led by Tarek Mansour and Luana Lopes Lara, noted an unprecedented surge in user participation. Polymarket’s Shayne Coplan echoed such patterns from prior cycles. The record $1 billion in contracts traded highlights the growing engagement in regulated markets. Higher volumes suggest significant institutional interest, driven partly by CFTC approvals and community trust in these platforms. Community reactions are centered around record-setting activities. Tarek Mansour stated, Volumes and engagement never before reached in regulated prediction markets. This reflects broader market trends, emphasizing user involvement in politically relevant events. USDC’s Stability Crucial Amid Trading Surge Did you know? The recent trading volume in prediction markets not only eclipsed the peaks of the 2020 U.S. election but also established a new standard for engagement in politically charged trading environments. According to CoinMarketCap, USDC maintains a stable price of $1.00 with a market cap of $76.20 billion. Despite a small monthly price change of 1.14%, USDC remains a critical asset in prediction market operations with a 24-hour trading volume of $17.68 billion. USDC(USDC), daily chart, screenshot on CoinMarketCap at 14:29 UTC on October 21, 2025. Source: CoinMarketCap The Coincu research team highlights the surging…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Floki Crypto Price Prediction: Market Shows Tight Range as Bulls Defend Key Support

Floki Crypto Price Prediction: Market Shows Tight Range as Bulls Defend Key Support

The post Floki Crypto Price Prediction: Market Shows Tight Range as Bulls Defend Key Support appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. The Floki market has entered a period of restrained volatility, with prices oscillating in a narrow band as traders weigh short-term opportunities against broader uncertainty. Despite recent fluctuations, the token remains relatively stable near the $0.000065–$0.000066 zone, suggesting that the market is balancing between mild selling pressure and renewed accumulation interest. Short-Term Price Structure Reflects Active Intraday Speculation The 5-minute chart for FLOKI/USD on Open Interest highlights a pattern of sharp yet contained price swings, a hallmark of active intraday trading. Midway through the chart, the coin recorded a brief surge followed by swift rejection at local resistance, underscoring the presence of momentum traders exploiting short-lived price spikes. The subsequent retreat revealed strong sell orders absorbing upward movement, leading to a reversion within the existing range. Source: Open Interest Beneath the price chart, the Buy/Sell Volume indicator (value 10) paints a clear picture of the ongoing battle between short-term bulls and bears. Distinct green volume bars accompanied upward thrusts, indicating bursts of buy-side aggression that temporarily overpowered sellers. However, repeated dips below the zero line showed that selling volume quickly returned, dampening follow-through. This interplay suggests a speculative market environment best suited for short-cycle momentum plays rather than extended directional positions. The narrow price channel shaped by quick reversals and low sustained momentum indicates that liquidity remains high but conviction is limited. This phase often precedes either a breakout attempt or a continued range-bound trade, depending on how buyers respond to recurring sell pressure. Market Metrics Show Steady Activity Amid Reduced Volatility Additionally, the coin maintains a market capitalization of $636.87 million, supported by $57.2 million in 24-hour trading volume. The asset’s 1.73% daily gain reflects modest buying strength, with prices hovering around $0.00006591. Ranked 142nd globally, FLOKI remains a notable player in the meme-coin ecosystem, attracting consistent volume despite…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Polymarket Regains Lead as Prediction Markets Hit $2 Billion Weekly Volume

Polymarket Regains Lead as Prediction Markets Hit $2 Billion Weekly Volume

The post Polymarket Regains Lead as Prediction Markets Hit $2 Billion Weekly Volume appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 💹 Trade with pro tools Fast execution, robust charts, clean risk controls. 👉 Open account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 🚀 Smooth orders, clear control Advanced order types and market depth in one view. 👉 Create account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 📈 Clarity in volatile markets Plan entries & exits, manage positions with discipline. 👉 Sign up → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup ⚡ Speed, depth, reliability Execute confidently when timing matters. 👉 Open account → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup 🧭 A focused workflow for traders Alerts, watchlists, and a repeatable process. 👉 Get started → COINOTAG recommends • Exchange signup ✅ Data‑driven decisions Focus on process—not noise. 👉 Sign up → Prediction markets volume reached a record $2 billion weekly as Polymarket regains its lead over Kalshi, driven by surging user activity and major funding rounds that value the industry in billions. Polymarket leads with $1 billion in volume, surpassing Kalshi’s $950 million amid U.S. market reentry. Sports markets dominate with $414.7 million, outpacing politics at $322.6 million in weekly trading. Industry valuations soar: Kalshi at $5 billion post-$300 million funding; Polymarket at $9 billion after $2 billion investment, per Certuity report projecting $95.5 billion by 2035. Explore surging prediction markets volume hitting $2B weekly. Polymarket leads amid elections and sports bets. Stay ahead with COINOTAG insights on crypto trends and valuations. Read now! What Is Driving Prediction Markets Volume to $2 Billion Weekly? Prediction markets volume has surged to over $2 billion weekly, marking a new high as platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi see explosive growth in user engagement and trading. This milestone, tracked by Dune Analytics data, reflects broader mainstream adoption fueled by relaxed U.S. regulations and high-stakes events like elections and sports seasons. Polymarket’s beta testing for…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Polymarket and Kalshi Dominate as Prediction Market Weekly Volume Rockets Past $2 Billion

Polymarket and Kalshi Dominate as Prediction Market Weekly Volume Rockets Past $2 Billion

The post Polymarket and Kalshi Dominate as Prediction Market Weekly Volume Rockets Past $2 Billion appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Dune Analytics data shows prediction markets are buzzing this week, racking up more than $2 billion in total volume across Myriad, Limitless, Kalshi, and Polymarket — with the latter pair pocketing most of the betting frenzy. Over on Polymarket, open interest shot up to $202 million by Monday, proving that traders aren’t just watching—they’re piling […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/polymarket-and-kalshi-dominate-as-prediction-market-weekly-volume-rockets-past-2-billion/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction Markets Bet Big on US Government Dysfunction: Shutdown Odds Stretch Toward Thanksgiving

Prediction Markets Bet Big on US Government Dysfunction: Shutdown Odds Stretch Toward Thanksgiving

The post Prediction Markets Bet Big on US Government Dysfunction: Shutdown Odds Stretch Toward Thanksgiving appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. As of Oct. 20, 2025, Washington’s still stuck in neutral—no deal, no compromise, and the House has hit snooze again, stretching recesses to Oct. 19. On Monday morning, White House economic adviser and National Economic Council Director Kevin Hassett told CNBC that the ongoing shutdown—what he cheekily dubbed the “Schumer shutdown”—is “likely to end sometime […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/prediction-markets-bet-big-on-us-government-dysfunction-shutdown-odds-stretch-toward-thanksgiving/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
The History of Crypto Prediction Markets: How Polymarket and Kalshi Emerged as Winners in a Crowded Space

The History of Crypto Prediction Markets: How Polymarket and Kalshi Emerged as Winners in a Crowded Space

The post The History of Crypto Prediction Markets: How Polymarket and Kalshi Emerged as Winners in a Crowded Space appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Polymarket and Kalshi are now considered the top crypto prediction markets, but the space was once led by other players taking very different approaches. Intercontinental Exchange’s move to invest up to $2 billion into Polymarket and Kalshi’s $300 million financing have turned a once-niche corner of crypto into a mainstream trading category. “The real prize for ICE is not just clearing contracts but monetizing the data, selling odds as sentiment factors alongside rates and credit where every rumor pays a fee,” said Michael Ashley Schulman, partner and CIO at Running Point Capital Advisors, told Reuters. But the prediction market boom is the culmination of years of technical experiments, regulatory fights, and product re-thinking, not a passing trend. Where’s Augur and Gnosis? Long before Polymarket and Kalshi arrived, the decentralized prediction market sector was already crowded with Gnosis, which at its peak in August 2020 had over $85 million in total value locked, followed by Augur with over $13 million, per data from DefiLlama. Prediction Markets TVL Augur, unveiled during the ICO era and founded in 2014 by Joey Krug, Jack Peterson, and Jeremy Gardner, went live in 2018, promising decentralized prediction markets with a native reputation token (REP) and an oracle system for reporting outcomes. Augur Interface While the idea was solid on paper, early users quickly ran into practical problems. Third-party node services were uneven, and blockchain sync issues and high Ethereum gas fees in those days slowed markets. As Alchemy, a blockchain infrastructure firm that also offered services to Augur, explained in a blog post, initially Augur launched with a “free third-party node service that was slow, unreliable, and frequently provided incorrect blockchain data,” costing the project months of recovery work. Mike Garland, head of product at Alchemy, explained to The Defiant that Augur and Gnosis “were pioneers…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction Market Bettors Go All-in on a Bitcoin Drop Under $100K

Prediction Market Bettors Go All-in on a Bitcoin Drop Under $100K

The post Prediction Market Bettors Go All-in on a Bitcoin Drop Under $100K appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Over the past two weeks, bitcoin has shed 12.4% against the U.S. dollar and now sits 14.9% shy of its all-time high above $126,000. Social media’s been buzzing with chatter over bitcoin’s slide, while prediction platform Polymarket shows bettors pegging a 69% chance that BTC dips below $100,000 before 2026 rolls around. Bitcoin’s October Blues […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/prediction-market-bettors-go-all-in-on-a-bitcoin-drop-under-100k/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews