American Confidence In U.S. Economy Falls To Five-Month Low

Topline

Pessimism about the U.S. economy spread among more Americans in September than expected, according to survey results released Tuesday by the Conference Board think tank, the latest economic data showing consumers have heightened worries about a declining job market and rising prices.

A reading on consumer confidence featured an uptick in pessimism about job availability and future business conditions.

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Key Facts

The Conference Board’s confidence index—a measurement of consumers’ views on the economy—dropped to 94.2 in September from 97.8 in August, down from a 100-point baseline set in 1985, marking the lowest reading since April and below Wall Street’s estimates of 96, according to FactSet.

More respondents indicated lowered expectations about the job market, according to the survey: About 26.9% of consumers said jobs were “plentiful,” the lowest level since February 2021, while roughly 19% said jobs were “hard to get.”

Consumers’ views of their current financial situation declined in the largest month-over-month drop since the data was first collected in July 2022, the Conference Board reported.

Fears about a recession remained strong as more consumers thought the U.S. economy was already in recession, and the Conference Board’s expectation index—a measurement of consumers’ short-term outlook on the market—fell to 73.4, still below the 80-point threshold that signals a recession.

Tangent

Available job openings rose more than expected to 7.23 million from a revised 7.21 million reading in July, the Bureau of Labor Statistics reported Tuesday. The hiring rate dropped to 3.2%, the lowest since June 2024, while the number of people who quit their jobs decreased by 75,000.

What To Watch For

The BLS will report jobs data for September on Friday, as economists widely believe the unemployment rate will hold firm at 4.3%, according to FactSet. The U.S. is expected to have added 50,000 nonfarm jobs through the month, up from August’s dismal 22,000. It’s not immediately clear whether the data will be released, however, as the federal government faces a looming shutdown.

Key Background

Confidence in the U.S. economy has steadily declined in recent months, while Americans express concerns about the effects of President Donald Trump’s tariffs on prices and a weakening job market. Separate data released last week by the University of Michigan indicated consumer sentiment had fallen to its lowest level since May, as Americans “continue to express frustration over the persistence of high prices.” About 44% of respondents in that survey cited rising inflation and higher prices as “eroding their personal finances,” the highest reading in a year. Federal Reserve officials have in recent weeks pointed to a declining job market as the focus for expected cuts to interest rates. Fed Chair Jerome Powell suggested the “near-term” risks of inflation had cooled, while concerns had risen about the job market. Fed Governor Michelle Bowman signaled she was “concerned” the labor market could enter a “precarious phase,” adding a “shock could tip it into a sudden and significant deterioration.”