Nonfarm Payrolls Fall By 92k, Bitcoin Falls

The February U.S. jobs report signals that the labor market remains weak, with nonfarm payrolls falling short of estimates by a wide margin while the unemployment rate rose. Bitcoin briefly rose on the back of this data release, which strengthens the case for more rate cuts, a positive for the leading crypto and the broader market.

U.S. Jobs Report Comes In Hot With Payrolls Missing Estimates

Bureau of Labor Statistics data shows that nonfarm payrolls dropped by 92,000 in February, below estimates of 58,000. This marks only the second monthly job loss since 2020, a development which market commentator The Kobeissi Letter noted indicates that the labor market is clearly weakening.

Furthermore, the February jobs report showed that unemployment rose to 4.4%, above estimates of 4.3%. Meanwhile, both the December 2025 and January 2026 nonfarm payrolls were revised downward, from 48,000 to -17,000 and from 130,000 to 126,000, respectively.

The February nonfarm payrolls mark a huge shift, as the January data had signaled that the labor market was rebounding. With this development, more Fed rate cuts may be on the cards, as the Fed indicated in the January FOMC minutes that inflation was the main priority, given that the labor market appeared to be stabilizing. However, this latest data suggests otherwise.

As CoinGape reported, Fed Governor Chris Waller had stated that his support for a March Fed rate cut will depend on this jobs report. He indicated that he will support a cut if the February data signal that the labor market is still weakening, rather than reaffirming the strong January report.

Bitcoin sharply rose above $70,000 on the back of the data release, with crypto traders increasing their bets on the number of Fed rate cuts this year. However, the leading crypto has since lost these gains and is now trading at around $69,000, according to TradingView data.

Weak Nonfarm Payrolls Could Impact March Decision

Ahead of the U.S. jobs report release, Waller said in a Bloomberg interview earlier today that a weak report could impact monetary policy. He suggested that there was no reason for the Fed not to cut rates at the March FOMC meeting if figures were bad and the January data were revised down.

As such, the Fed governor opined that the meeting could go the other way depending on the jobs report and the CPI inflation data, which drops next week. Waller has been one of the few Fed officials who have continued to advocate for more rate cuts, dissenting at the January FOMC meeting in favor of a 25 basis points (bps) cut.

Despite the weak jobs report, the Fed is still likely to hold interest rates steady at the March meeting, especially with concerns that the Iran war could drive inflation higher. There is a 94% chance the committee will hold rates steady, according to CME FedWatch data.