The popular pattern says Bitcoin falls before US midterm elections and rallies after them. In the numbers, that pattern depends on the start date. For the 2014 vote, one analysis shows a crash ofThe popular pattern says Bitcoin falls before US midterm elections and rallies after them. In the numbers, that pattern depends on the start date. For the 2014 vote, one analysis shows a crash of

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Midterm Elections and Bitcoin: Why the "Fall First, Then Rise" Pattern Depends on Your Start Date

作者：Marcus O'Brien

初阶

Nov 3, 2026Marcus O'Brien

7 分钟

The popular pattern says Bitcoin falls before US midterm elections and rallies after them. In the numbers, that pattern depends on the start date. For the 2014 vote, one analysis shows a crash of about 58% in the following month, while another shows a 12.8% gain. This guide shows what survives once the window is fixed, and why AI stocks and crypto regulation make 2026 different.

Status: written on Election Day, November 3, before results are known, with all 435 House seats and 35 of 100 Senate seats on the ballot. Close races can take days to call.

Key Takeaways

Stocks: the S&P 500 rose in the 12 months after 32 of 38 midterms since 1874, averaging about 14%, and has been higher 12 months after all 19 midterms since 1950.
Bitcoin: higher 12 months after each of the last three midterms (+24.5%, +44.9% and +92.3%), but it fell 45.5% in the month right after the 2018 vote.
The vote is rarely the driver: economic fundamentals, not which party controls Congress, primarily drive equity returns.
2026 is different: Bitcoin's 2026 low came in July, months before the vote, while AI infrastructure spending and a stalled crypto bill add policy risk that earlier midterms did not carry.

What the S&P 500 Did Around Past Midterms

Stocks have usually been choppy before the vote. In the 12 months before midterms, the S&P 500 averaged 2.9%, against a long-run average of 8.9%, and the average peak-to-trough drawdown in midterm years is about 16%.

The S&P 500 rose in the 12 months after 32 of 38 midterms since 1874 and has been higher after all 19 since 1950, but the recovery is gradual rather than instant. The month after a midterm is muted, at an average of 0.5% and positive only 55% of the time. Gains build later: about 6% on average after three months, 10% after six months and 14% after twelve. The first session after the vote is close to a coin flip: up 2.1% in 2018 and down 2.1% in 2022.

The party that wins matters less than many expect. Divided government under a Republican president followed 14 midterms, and the market was higher 12 months later 93% of the time. If Democrats win either chamber in 2026, that is the setup. The exceptions to the broad pattern cluster in crisis eras, such as the 1930s, and reflect the economy of the time rather than election results.

Options markets treat the 2026 vote as routine. Man Group estimates the implied S&P 500 move for November 4 is about 20% larger than usual but roughly half the size priced around a presidential election.

What Bitcoin Did Around Past Midterms

Bitcoin has only three liquid midterm cycles: 2014, 2018 and 2022. CryptoQuant data summarized by DigitalToday shows the pattern:

2014: +24.5% over the following 12 months.
2018: a 45.5% drop in the month after the vote, then +44.9% over 12 months.
2022: +92.3% over 12 months, with the FTX collapse landing in the same week as the midterms.

Three data points are not a rule, and the "falls first, then rises" story depends heavily on how it is measured. For the 2014 vote alone, one analysis found a crash of about 58% in the month after the election, while another, measuring 30 days from the close before Election Day, shows a 12.8% gain. Peak-to-trough and close-to-close windows tell different stories about the same event.

There is also a confounder. Bitcoin bottomed in January 2015, December 2018 and November 2022, which was 71, 38 and 13 days after Election Day. Past midterms fell near the end of bear markets, so the election is hard to separate from the Bitcoin halving cycle. In 2026, the year's low of $57,850 came on July 1, 125 days before the vote, so this cycle already breaks the template.

Where Bitcoin stands now: it traded near $78,000 after falling 7.3% in October. Macro variables are likely to matter more than the ballot box. The 10-year Treasury yield was 5.28% in early October, and spot Bitcoin ETF inflows slowed from about $2.39 billion to about $241 million in consecutive weeks.

What About Ethereum?

Ethereum has traded through only two midterm cycles in its current form, 2018 and 2022. Using Binance spot daily closes (UTC), measured from the day before Election Day, the record is mixed:

2018: ETH fell 51.2% over the following month, from $210.66 to $102.71, and was still 10.4% below its starting level a year later. Bitcoin on the same basis fell 41.7% in a month and was up 43.9% after a year.
2022: ETH fell 21.5% over the following month, during the FTX collapse, and was up 20.2% after a year. Bitcoin on the same basis fell 18.2% in a month and was up 71.9% after a year.

Two cycles are too few to call a pattern. What the data does show is that ETH fell harder than Bitcoin in the month after both votes and recovered less over the following year. Start dates also matter: the 2022 one-year Bitcoin gain is 71.9% on this basis and 92.3% in the CryptoQuant figures above, so compare statistics only when they use the same start date and data source. For background on the network behind these numbers, see MEXC's guide to how Ethereum works.

Why 2026 Is Different: AI and Crypto Policy

The AI Trade

AI infrastructure spending is expected to top $1 trillion next year, which is why data center politics now matters to equity investors. Wall Street expects Democrats to win at least one chamber, and stricter AI oversight and more hearings are the main risk. Evercore ISI flagged that AI-focused hearings could create market risk, while one policy strategist noted that the midterms matter more for laying groundwork for later legislation than for immediate federal limits on data centers.

The counterweight is the presidential veto. Analysts doubt that national legislation would stall data center construction, and Trump would likely block bills unfavorable to the industry. Electricity costs have also made data centers a campaign issue, so state-level rules may move faster than Congress.

Crypto Regulation

The Senate failed to advance the Digital Asset Market Clarity Act on September 15, with 49 votes against the 60 needed, and Coinbase and Circle shares fell. Democratic gains could bring demands for stricter consumer safeguards, limits on yield-bearing stablecoins and more scrutiny of Trump's crypto businesses.

Congress has already passed one major crypto law, the GENIUS Act for payment stablecoins, so the stalled Clarity Act is the broader market-structure piece. The industry has spent heavily to shape the outcome: Public Citizen estimated crypto-related companies had spent about $189 million on the 2026 cycle through June 30. Political money has so far outrun legislative results.

Reading the Odds: What Prediction Markets Price In

In October, prediction markets priced Democrats at about 92% to win the House and roughly two in three to win the Senate, with a Republican sweep near 7%. These figures move daily, so check the live Kalshi and Polymarket quotes.

When an outcome is largely priced in, what moves markets is the surprise: a closer Senate margin than expected, or a delayed count. Man Group has warned that a delayed result could upend positions built for a clear one. To understand how event contracts work, see MEXC's guide to how prediction markets work.

Three Scenarios to Watch

These are frameworks for thinking about risk, not forecasts.

Democratic sweep (House and Senate): the most scrutiny for AI infrastructure and crypto legislation, with the presidential veto still limiting near-term federal action.
Democratic House, Republican Senate: more House oversight, with the Senate still in Republican hands. This is the gridlock setup that has historically been followed by positive 12-month stock returns.
Republican hold: a surprise against current pricing. The reaction would depend on how far positions had been built for the opposite result.