Prediction-Market

Prediction Markets are decentralized platforms where users trade shares based on the outcome of future events, ranging from elections to sports and crypto prices.By leveraging the "wisdom of the crowd," platforms like Polymarket provide highly accurate, censorship-resistant forecasting data. In 2026, these markets serve as a primary source of sentiment analysis and risk hedging. This tag covers the technology behind decentralized oracles, event-based liquidity, and the growing role of prediction markets in global information discovery.

907 Articles
Created: 2026/02/02 18:52
Updated: 2026/02/02 18:52
Stripe, Paradigm Open Tempo Blockchain to Public as Stablecoin Demand Accelerates

Stripe, Paradigm Open Tempo Blockchain to Public as Stablecoin Demand Accelerates

Stripe and Paradigm opened Tempo's public testnet, inviting companies to build stablecoin payment apps with fixed 0.1-cent fees and predictable settlement. The post Stripe, Paradigm Open Tempo Blockchain to Public as Stablecoin Demand Accelerates appeared first on Coinspeaker.

Author: Coinspeaker
Elite Traders May Exploit Retail Inefficiencies in Bitcoin-Linked Prediction Markets

Elite Traders May Exploit Retail Inefficiencies in Bitcoin-Linked Prediction Markets

The post Elite Traders May Exploit Retail Inefficiencies in Bitcoin-Linked Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Crypto prediction markets are seeing a surge in retail participation, but elite traders are capitalizing on information asymmetry and spreads from casual bettors, leading to losses for 83% of users per Dune data. Professional desks are increasing activity to extract profits from this dynamic. Rising liquidity draws informed traders who hedge and price probabilities accurately against narrative-driven retail bets. Blockchain analysis shows only 16.7% of Polymarket wallets in profit, highlighting risks for casual investors. Perfect win rates, like 100% on OpenAI events yielding $77,000, fuel insider trading suspicions amid data bugs inflating volumes. Discover how elite traders dominate crypto prediction markets with data-driven edges over retail bettors. Explore risks, stats, and emerging concerns in this growing sector—stay informed to navigate wisely. What Are Crypto Prediction Markets and How Do Elite Traders Dominate Them? Crypto prediction markets are decentralized platforms where users bet on real-world event outcomes using cryptocurrencies, functioning like blockchain-based betting exchanges for politics, sports, and tech developments. They have gained traction as a battleground where informed, professional traders compete against retail participants for profits. According to a report from research firm 10x Research, most users trade on dopamine and narratives rather than discipline, allowing a small elite to drive accuracy and extract premiums from longshot bets. This structure incentivizes professional trading desks to ramp up activity, capturing spreads and misinformation asymmetries fueled by casual investors seeking quick gains. The markets’ rising liquidity, particularly on platforms like Polymarket, mirrors broader crypto trends but exposes retail users to significant risks, as they often behave more like sports bettors than strategic investors. Polymarket active users, weekly, Bitcoin left-hand-side price, year-to-date chart. Source: 10x Research The integration of blockchain transparency with prediction outcomes creates a unique ecosystem, but it also amplifies the divide between prepared traders and newcomers. 10x Research notes that…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Galaxy Digital Transfers 900 BTC as It Explores Altcoins and Prediction Markets

Galaxy Digital Transfers 900 BTC as It Explores Altcoins and Prediction Markets

The post Galaxy Digital Transfers 900 BTC as It Explores Altcoins and Prediction Markets appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Galaxy Digital recently transferred 900 Bitcoin (BTC), valued at $81.59 million, to a new wallet, signaling active management of its holdings amid expansions into altcoins like Solana and prediction markets. This move underscores the firm’s strategic positioning in the evolving crypto landscape and growing institutional interest. Galaxy Digital’s 900 BTC transfer highlights its proactive asset management and transparency in institutional crypto activities. The firm is aggressively accumulating Solana (SOL), with purchases totaling around $300 million across multiple exchanges. Institutions accumulated 11,260 BTC in early December, per blockchain analytics, reflecting broader market confidence with rising stablecoin volumes and DEX activity. Discover Galaxy Digital’s 900 BTC transfer and its altcoin strategies in this in-depth analysis. Stay ahead in crypto—explore institutional trends shaping Bitcoin and beyond today. What is Galaxy Digital’s Recent BTC Transfer All About? Galaxy Digital’s BTC transfer involves moving 900 Bitcoin, worth $81.59 million, to a newly created wallet on December 9, 2025, as confirmed by blockchain analytics firm Lookonchain. This action demonstrates the firm’s ongoing commitment to transparent management of its substantial cryptocurrency portfolio. It aligns with previous high-profile transactions, such as an 80,000 BTC sale earlier in the year for a Satoshi-era investor focused on real estate diversification. How Is Galaxy Digital Expanding into Altcoins Like Solana? Galaxy Digital has shown significant interest in altcoins, particularly Solana (SOL), by executing purchases amounting to approximately $300 million through platforms like Binance, Coinbase, and Bybit in 15 separate transactions, according to data from Arkham Intelligence. Within just five days, the firm accumulated nearly 6.5 million SOL, which was then transferred to secure custody solutions provided by Fireblocks, indicating a clear long-term holding strategy. This diversification beyond Bitcoin positions Galaxy Digital as a key player in the altcoin sector, capitalizing on Solana’s scalability and growing ecosystem. Experts note that such moves…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Buys Brokerage & Crypto Firms

Buys Brokerage & Crypto Firms

The post Buys Brokerage & Crypto Firms appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Robinhood Indonesia Crypto Expansion relies on buying a local brokerage and crypto firm. Both deals need OJK approval and aim to close in the first half of 2026. Indonesia move extends Robinhood’s prediction markets and tokenization strategy into Southeast Asia. Robinhood is set to enter Indonesia through a pair of acquisitions that put the United States trading platform directly into one of Southeast Asia’s fastest growing markets. The company disclosed it has signed agreements to purchase local brokerage PT Buana Capital Sekuritas and digital asset firm PT Pedagang Aset Kripto, marking its first step toward offering both equity and cryptocurrency services in Indonesia. Robinhood To Serve Indonesia’s Stock And Crypto Investors Under the proposed structure, Robinhood will take over operations at Buana Capital, while continuing to serve the firm’s existing customer base with Indonesian financial products. The company stated that its longer term plan is to introduce its own brokerage suite and crypto trading tools, so Indonesian users can tap United States equities, local digital assets, and cross market instruments from one app. PT Pedagang Aset Kripto, the second targeted acquisition, would give Robinhood direct exposure to Indonesia’s active crypto trading segment. Data from market institutions show that there are more than 19 million capital-market participants and 17 million crypto investors in the country, indicating the scale of potential demand for integrated trading services. Pieter Tanuri, the majority owner of both Buana Capital and PT Pedagang Aset Kripto, will remain involved in the transition as a strategic advisor following the completion of the two deals. Related: Robinhood to Acquire MIAXdx in Joint Venture with Susquehanna, Seizing Control of Prediction Market Stack  What OJK Approval and 2026 Timeline Mean For Robinhood’s Launch The company noted that each transaction remains subject to customary closing conditions, including regulatory review by the Otoritas Jasa…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Stunning $13B Surge: November Prediction Market Volume Shatters All Records

Stunning $13B Surge: November Prediction Market Volume Shatters All Records

BitcoinWorld Stunning $13B Surge: November Prediction Market Volume Shatters All Records Hold onto your hats. The world of forecasting just witnessed a seismic shift. In November alone, a staggering over $13 billion surged through prediction markets. This isn’t just a big number; it’s more than triple the trading volume seen during the peak of the 2024 U.S. presidential election frenzy. This explosive prediction market volume signals […] This post Stunning $13B Surge: November Prediction Market Volume Shatters All Records first appeared on BitcoinWorld.

Author: bitcoinworld
Robinhood Buys Into Indonesia to Fast-Track Crypto Expansion

Robinhood Buys Into Indonesia to Fast-Track Crypto Expansion

The post Robinhood Buys Into Indonesia to Fast-Track Crypto Expansion appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Fintech Robinhood is steering its expansion strategy well beyond the U.S., and its latest destination signals how aggressively the company intends to grow. The firm is preparing to plant a flag in Indonesia — not by slowly building from scratch, but by absorbing regulated entities already rooted in the market. Indonesia has emerged as one of Asia’s liveliest trading arenas, with a young investor class comfortable holding both equities and cryptocurrencies. With millions of people already active in capital markets, Robinhood sees a population whose investment habits align with its app-first philosophy. Key Takeaways Robinhood is entering Indonesia by purchasing existing licensed companies. Indonesia’s young, active investor base makes it a high-priority market. The move coincides with supportive financial regulation in the region. Robinhood’s expansion streak continues even as U.S. oversight intensifies.  Rather than testing the waters, the company is diving in via agreements to buy two licensed local operators. Those firms give Robinhood immediate authorization to offer brokerage services and digital asset products under existing permits. Acquisition as a Shortcut — and a Statement The strategic choice to purchase regulated platforms instead of applying for fresh accreditation reveals a desire for speed. Regulatory approvals in Indonesia can drag on, but acquiring incumbents lets Robinhood switch on services quickly. For Robinhood’s Asian leadership, the message is simple: Indonesia is a proving ground where the company can deploy its broader mission to make investing accessible. Local majority owner Pieter Tanuri will stay involved as an adviser, helping guide the shift in ownership when the transaction closes in 2026. Political Winds Are Favorable Indonesia’s government has spent the past two years shaping infrastructure for crypto dealings and capital markets, aiming to elevate the country as a Southeast Asian financial hub. Robinhood’s entry feels timed to capitalize on that groundwork — a moment…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction Markets Bet on Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair, Signaling Softer Inflation Outlook

Prediction Markets Bet on Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair, Signaling Softer Inflation Outlook

The post Prediction Markets Bet on Kevin Hassett as Fed Chair, Signaling Softer Inflation Outlook appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Kevin Hassett’s rising odds as Federal Reserve Chair candidate are boosting market expectations for lower inflation and potential rate cuts, with prediction markets showing 73% probability. This shift is influencing Treasury yields and the U.S. dollar, signaling broader economic impacts including on cryptocurrency valuations. Prediction markets favor Hassett at 73% odds, up from 30% last month, per platforms like Polymarket and Kalshi. Trump’s potential selection aligns with market bets on softer inflation and easier monetary policy. Treasury yields rose 14 basis points, reflecting investor concerns over rapid rate cuts reigniting inflation; experts like Michael Brown at Pepperstone note this as a loyalty-driven signal to Trump’s agenda. Kevin Hassett emerges as top Fed Chair contender amid prediction market surge and market reactions. Explore implications for inflation, crypto markets, and U.S. economy—stay informed on policy shifts. What Are the Odds of Kevin Hassett Becoming the Next Federal Reserve Chair? Kevin Hassett, current director of the National Economic Council, has surged to the forefront as a leading candidate for Federal Reserve Chair, with prediction markets placing his odds at 73% as of late December 2025. This rapid rise, from just 30% at the end of November on platforms like Polymarket, reflects growing investor confidence in his alignment with President Trump’s economic vision, particularly on aggressive rate cuts. While no official announcement has been made, market behaviors indicate traders are pricing in a shift toward looser monetary policy that could ease borrowing costs and stimulate growth. How Is Kevin Hassett’s Candidacy Impacting Bond Markets and Inflation Expectations? Kevin Hassett’s ascent has triggered notable movements in financial markets, particularly in Treasuries and currencies, as investors weigh the prospects of a Fed led by someone advocating for substantial interest rate reductions. Since reports from Bloomberg highlighted him as the frontrunner on December 17, 2025, the 10-year…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction markets bet on inflation trending lower with Hassett as Fed chair

Prediction markets bet on inflation trending lower with Hassett as Fed chair

The post Prediction markets bet on inflation trending lower with Hassett as Fed chair appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. Prediction markets are leaning toward Kevin Hassett taking over the Federal Reserve, and traders are tying that call directly to expectations of lower inflation, according to comments shared online by Jason Miller, who served as a senior advisor on Donald Trump’s transition team. Jason pointed out that Trump has not announced a decision yet but argued that if Trump selects Kevin, it would align with the way markets are already behaving. As you can see below, Jason shared alongside his post a Kalshi chart showing Kevin’s rising odds paired with softer future inflation pricing, fueled by the platform’s gamblers. Source: Jason Miller/X Kevin, who directs the National Economic Council, climbed fast to the front of the race in the past week. The odds on Polymarket moved from about 30% at the end of November to 73% by Friday, putting him well ahead of any other rumored candidate. Cryptopolitan had reported that Trump said during a White House event on Wednesday:- “I guess a potential Fed Chair is here too, I don’t know, are we allowed to say that? Potential. He’s a respected person, that I can tell you. Thank you, Kevin.” Bond traders respond as Hassett leads Naturally, Treasury markets reacted as Kevin’s chances went up. Since Bloomberg reported last Tuesday that he was the top contender, the 10-year yield has surged by 14 basis points as of press time, showing investors adjusting to the idea of a Fed chair who has publicly pushed for sharp rate cuts in the past. The jump in yields came even though Kevin is known for arguing for lower borrowing costs, meaning the trading floor sees the possibility of inflation returning if cuts come too fast. That view showed up in comments from Michael Brown, who serves as senior research strategist at Pepperstone. Michael…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
Prediction Market Odds: House Democrat, Senate GOP Ahead of 2026 Elections

Prediction Market Odds: House Democrat, Senate GOP Ahead of 2026 Elections

The post Prediction Market Odds: House Democrat, Senate GOP Ahead of 2026 Elections appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. According to the latest figures, President Donald Trump has logged 320 days of his second term, and his approval rating has slipped from the brief highs that followed his Jan. 20 inauguration. Meanwhile, prediction markets indicate Democrats are currently positioned to snag a few congressional slots, giving them a legitimate opening to reclaim a House […] Source: https://news.bitcoin.com/prediction-market-odds-house-democrat-senate-gop-ahead-of-2026-elections/

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews
CNBC Signs Partnership with Prediction Market Kalshi

CNBC Signs Partnership with Prediction Market Kalshi

The post CNBC Signs Partnership with Prediction Market Kalshi appeared on BitcoinEthereumNews.com. CNBC has entered a multi-year partnership with prediction market operator Kalshi to incorporate real-time forecasting data across its TV, digital and subscription platforms. According to Thursday’s announcement, Kalshi’s event probability data will be integrated into CNBC programming beginning in 2026, including on shows such as “Squawk Box” and “Fast Money,” with a dedicated ticker displaying forecast moves in real-time. Kalshi will also launch a CNBC-branded page on its platform featuring markets selected by the network. Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour said the integration was the “next evolution” of financial reporting, “moving from data about what’s happening now, to real-time forecasts about what’s happening next.” CNBC president KC Sullivan added that prediction markets are becoming important tools for understanding major events, calling Kalshi’s data a “powerful complement” to the network’s reporting. Real-world events on Kalshi. Source: Kalshi The agreement comes days after Kalshi announced a separate data integration partnership with CNN, where its prediction markets will be incorporated into on-air analysis and newsroom reporting.  Kalshi, founded in 2018, operates one of the largest regulated prediction market platforms in the United States, allowing users to trade on outcomes tied to elections, sports, economic releases and other real-world events. The company’s $1 billion raise in November at an $11 billion valuation made both of its 29-year-old co-founders billionaires, with CEO Luana Lopes Lara becoming the world’s youngest self-made woman billionaire, according to Forbes. Related: Connecticut orders Robinhood, Crypto.com, Kalshi to stop prediction markets Polymarket prediction market is also on the rise Kalshi is a US-regulated prediction market, but it’s not the only platform gaining traction. Polymarket, a blockchain-based prediction platform built on Polygon, has also been expanding its reach through a series of recent partnerships and regulatory approvals. In October, sports betting operator DraftKings began using Polymarket as the clearinghouse for its new prediction…

Author: BitcoinEthereumNews