[Rappler’s Best] Can Chiz Escudero retake the Senate presidency? Manic Monday scenarios

Last Monday, May 11, the pro-Duterte camp in the Senate finally got the last vote — that of now-fugitive Senator Bato dela Rosa — to meet the magic number of 13 that allowed them to oust Tito Sotto as president and replace him with Senator Alan Peter Cayetano. 

This ended Sotto’s eight-month stint as Senate president, following his coup in September 2025 against Senator Chiz Escudero. If you recall, Escudero spent just over a month in his reelected post after his alleged involvement in the flood corruption scandal.

Drowned out by the noise was the Duterte camp’s recruitment, too, from the Sotto side of four senators — Loren Legarda, Pia Cayetano, and the Villar siblings Mark and Camille.

Without Dela Rosa now, Cayetano does not have the majority, with just 12 votes in the 24-member Senate — assuming Senator Robin Padilla shows up for him. The number will be down to 11 without Padilla, who’s now a person of interest to the National Bureau of Investigation.

Escudero bloc

But does the counter-coup force have at least 13 votes to move against Cayetano on Monday, May 18? Here are the scenarios as of early Monday morning:

• They have already secured the votes of 11, to include the eight who stood by Sotto last Monday and the two who abstained — Senators JV Ejercito and Migz Zubiri. 
• Where will they get the additional votes to reach a majority? We’re told that the votes could come from the senators who may use the various complaints they’re facing as their leverage.
  • The Villars, who are being investigated by the justice department over criminal complaints of insider trading from the Securities and Exchange Commission.
  • Senators Chiz Escudero, Jinggoy Estrada, and Joel Villanueva — all being probed for their alleged involvement in the flood control corruption scandal. Escudero and Estrada are currently barred from leaving the country.  
• That’s already five additional votes that would give the anti-Cayetano bloc a formidable total of 16 votes. But in exchange for what?
• That commitment reportedly could extend to the impeachment vote, and in this case, Escudero can demand for nothing less than the Senate presidency. An unpopular bet, naturally, thus the name of Win Gatchalian as a possible alternative as well.

How will the Sotto camp, especially Lacson who led the flood scandal investigation, navigate this? Eight voted for Sotto in last Monday’s coup aside from Lacson: Bam Aquino, Kiko Pangilinan, Risa Hontiveros, Raffy and Erwin Tulfo, Lito Lapid, and Win Gatchalian. 

And how about Legarda? Will she leave Cayetano? Ah, that would put her fellow Assumptionistas in a bind after they removed her portrait from the college’s Wall of Empowered Women to denounce her decision to side with him. Legarda and Cayetano have a colorful political history, by the way. Read more.

For the counter-coup force, the best-case scenario is obviously 13-11 or more (without Dela Rosa and Padilla) and the worst case is a manic Monday stalemate: 11-11 or 11-12 (if Padilla is present). I cannot even begin to fathom how a deadlocked Senate will work.

Against this backdrop, the Senate is scheduled to convene on Monday as an impeachment court for the trial of Vice President Sara Duterte. How can this proceed with a Senate leadership in a murky transition? Indeed, it’s a second quarter storm.

Don’t you just yearn for the times when — despite a Senate of 24 autonomous power centers — it would only take a quiet, savvy but forceful hand from Malacañang to push an agenda, to break a deadlock, or to block hooligans from causing a crisis?

Hubris and indecision

What was President Ferdinand Marcos Jr. thinking last week? That he could still distance himself from the International Criminal Court (ICC) more than a year after his government had already sent his predecessor to The Hague for crimes against humanity?

What was Dela Rosa thinking when he got lured to appear and cast his vote for Cayetano? That he can save both the Vice President (in a scenario that a pliant Senate leadership will swing the impeachment trial in her favor) and himself at the same time? That he can achieve what his patron Rodrigo Duterte failed to get before his arrest in 2025 — a relief from the Supreme Court through a TRO? That he can ensure his own security by exercising command and control of his military academy classmate, the suspended Senate Sergeant-at-Arms Mao Aplasca?

It’s the height of either hubris or simple-mindedness for an ICC accused to think he can have everything all at once.

But who can blame Dela Rosa? The President himself apparently did not know what he wanted as far as the Duterte acolyte was concerned. 

The SC did not only refuse to give Dela Rosa immediate relief, it practically gave the executive 72 hours to act on the warrant — the period it gave opposing parties to comment on his petition for a TRO.

Yet, instead of seizing that window to handcuff Dela Rosa, the executive hedged its bets and used that to justify inaction. Surely Malacañang knew beforehand that a TRO was not coming for the senator before all hell broke loose? Who are they kidding?

In effect, it was the President who caved in to the gunshots, disowning any effort to arrest Dela Rosa on Wednesday night while his alter ego, Local Government Secretary Jonvic Remulla, entered the Senate premises not to serve the warrant, but to “secure” the ICC accused, who escaped hours later. 

This left Marcos’ hidden alter-ego in the ICC, former senator Sonny Trillanes IV, screaming in disbelief. Jairo Bolledo explains the unexplainable in this story. 

• Can those who aided Dela Rosa both in running away from a warrant and escaping from the Senate’s “protective custody” be punished? Lawyers believe so, as Jairo writes in this story.
• Lawyer John Molo points out in this Thought Leaders piece that the senators allied with Dela Rosa “may not have been properly advised that obstructing this arrest — as well as enabling his subsequent escape — came with the risk of getting their own warrants, local and abroad.”
• To help you make sense of it all, here’s everything you need to know about the Dela Rosa fiasco.

Here are some of Rappler’s bests that you shouldn’t miss:

• Dwight de Leon tells us how the Senate standoff has been reduced to a he said, she said affair, each camp with its own reality. 
• Den Somera warns of capital flight in the aftermath of the Senate chaos. 
• Bea Cupin profiles suspended Senate Sergeant-at-Arms Mao Aplasca, the retired police general who used to get orders from his superior, former national police chief and now fugitive Senator Bato dela Rosa. Bea also reminds us of how fiercely loyal Dela Rosa was to the Dutertes.
• Lala Rimando looks beyond the ceasefire called by the majority faction in the feuding Lopez clan. 

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– Rappler.com

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