Bitcoin risk grows as $75,000 support may break

Cryptocurrency markets opened the week under heavy selling pressure. The shift came after sharp changes in US interest rate expectations. Investors are now nervous about what comes next.

In a recent analysis, crypto market maker Wintermute warned that if Bitcoin slips below $75,000, it could drop fast to the $70,000 range. The analysts pointed out that Bitcoin recently failed to break above its 200-day moving average. This was its first big test under macroeconomic stress. Wintermute thinks the earlier rally was mostly due to short position closures, not fresh capital coming in.

Macroeconomic headwinds tighten

The economic picture is getting tighter. US consumer inflation is rising above expectations. Core inflation stays high. Real wages are falling. Meanwhile, the 10-year Treasury yield climbed to 4.58%, which adds pressure on risky assets like crypto.

Adding to the unease, a new Fed chair is set to take office in three weeks. He is seen as more hawkish. Markets worry he might tighten monetary policy further. In just five trading days, investor expectations flipped. They went from hoping for rate cuts to pricing in possible rate hikes.

Asset performance shows a clear divide

The gap between asset classes tells a story. Brent oil rose 8.6% last week. Bitcoin fell 5.7%. Ethereum lost 10.2%. Analysts note that capital seems to be flowing into assets that do well when inflation is high.

Wintermute highlights the $76,000 to $78,000 zone as critical support for Bitcoin. If it holds, market confidence might recover. But if it breaks below $75,000 and ETF outflows continue, a quick drop to $70,000 looks likely. This is not investment advice.

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