Two Colombias, two futures: Inside the runoff election shaping the country’s next decade

BOGOTÁ, June 15 — Colombians eyeing a runoff election face two starkly different economic models against a backdrop of messy government finances.

Rightwing candidate Abelardo de la Espriella wants a leaner state with pro-business policy while leftist Ivan Cepeda is pushing for greater government spending on social programs in the runup to the June 21 election.

Outgoing leftist President Gustavo Petro is finishing his four-year term with high approval ratings among low income people because he has reduced poverty, supported public education, cut unemployment and raised the minimum wage.

But Colombia’s first leftist president has also been criticised for heavy public spending, nasty remarks to the business community and what UN economic experts call the worst fiscal deficit in Latin America after Brazil.

Diego Soler, a businessman in the textile sector, said Petro was downright anti-business. Soler runs a company called American Tactical, which imports and markets tactical equipment such as for protecting police and soldiers.

“We went from paying a 15 per cent tariff in the case of textiles to 40 per cent,” he told AFP.

In Latin America’s fourth-largest economy, his company survived a 23 per cent increase in the minimum wage without having to fire anyone. But it has been unable to expand.

In the runoff election on June 21, Cepeda proposes pushing on with Petro policies to put priority on social spending and the transition away from fossil fuels.

De la Espriella wants to encourage private investment to stimulate the free market and is big on exploiting Colombia’s oil and other natural resources.

Laura Valverde, a 34-year-old accountant, backs Cepeda. She said she is happy with the increase in the minimum wage, a cut in daily working hours and government aid money for her disabled son.

“It frightens me how people can support someone who wants to take a step back after we made progress for four years,” Valverde said.

Without a ‘saw’

While many in Colombia are worried about a wave of guerrilla and other violence that has swept the election campaign, experts say the greatest challenge facing the next president will be the economy.

Ana Fernanda Maiguashica, an economist who runs the Private Competitiveness Council, a business think tank, said people “are going to feel the deterioration of the fiscal deficit.”

Cepeda says he wants to go even further with the Petro social spending programs in a country with one of the world’s most glaring gaps between rich and poor.

Petro’s social spending policy has “all but eliminated extreme poverty” in Colombia, said Jorge Restrepo, a professor at Xaverian University.

But Petro is leaving with a fiscal deficit of nearly seven per cent of GDP and a slim coffer for government money.

De la Espriella, an admirer of Argentina’s President Javier Milei, says he will cut the size of the state by 40 per cent and impose fiscal austerity.

Experts say this is a challenge because he would need approval from Congress.

“He is Milei without the details, a Milei without the buzz saw,” Restrepo said, alluding to the Trump-backed Argentine leader’s gimmick for depicting himself as a spending slasher.

Then there is the issue of cocaine, of which Colombia is the world’s largest producer. It accounts for four per cent of GDP here, according to a study by Los Andes University.

De la Espriella has made the novel suggestion that drug cartels be able to keep 10 per cent of their revenue if they give the rest to the government. This would be in exchange for incentives like protection against extradition.

Cepeda proposes negotiating with armed groups involved in drug trafficking, having them give up their weapons and providing compensation to victims of decades of war and other violence in Colombia. — AFP