A 10-Year SpaceX Investor Says the $2 Trillion Price Tag Is Still Too Cheap
The post A 10-Year SpaceX Investor Says the $2 Trillion Price Tag Is Still Too Cheap appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..
- Chad Anderson of Space Capital argues SpaceX is undervalued at $2T, using it as a benchmark to show smaller space companies like RKLB, PL, and ASTS are undervalued.
- The space economy has been structurally underpriced for years, with a massive infrastructure buildout cycle underway involving hundreds of billions in legacy system replacements.
- Rocket Lab trades at $55.4B market cap with $200M+ Q1 revenue and record backlog, Planet Labs grew 42% YoY with $906M backlog, and AST SpaceMobile guides $150M-$200M FY26 revenue.
- Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn't make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
Two weeks after the largest IPO in history priced, SpaceX (NASDAQ:SPCX) opened at $1.8 trillion valuation and has drifted to roughly $2 trillion, which Chad Anderson, managing partner at Space Capital and a decade-long SpaceX backer, calls cheap.
Speaking on CNBC on June 26, Anderson argued the space economy has been structurally underpriced for years and that SpaceX’s listing finally hands the market a real-money comp. “The space economy has been underpriced, and now we have a liquid benchmark to benchmark this category against,” Anderson said.
For the five public space names below, that benchmark matters. They have traded on faith, government contracts, and YouTube launch streams. Now they trade against a $2 trillion incumbent whose filings tell the rest of the orbit what the prize looks like.
Anderson’s pitch on why $2 trillion is the floor
Anderson’s framing is straightforward. “The opportunity in space and the space economy overall is long term. This is we are in the midst of a massive infrastructure build out cycle,” he said, pointing to hundreds of billions of legacy systems being replaced and an entirely new layer of AI being built out on top.
His fund has had six portfolio companies go public, unusual for a sector specialist, and he expects more. Whether $2 trillion is the floor or ceiling depends on whether Starlink, Starshield, and the AI compute deals leaked all spring actually scale.
What the benchmark does to the small caps
Rocket Lab (NASDAQ:RKLB) carries a market cap near $55.4 billion after a brutal stretch. It is down 40% over the past month yet up 136% over the past year.
Moreover, Q1 revenue of $200.35 million grew year over year with a record backlog. The backlog includes the $816 million SDA Tranche 3 award.
In addition, CEO Peter Beck called the quarter “another exceptional quarter with record financial performance of more than $200 million in revenue.” Analyst consensus sits well above the current $106.92.
Planet Labs (NYSE:PL) is up 367% on a one-year basis.
Revenue grew 42% year over year in Q1 with backlog of $906 million. CEO Will Marshall framed the run as built on 99% recurring ACV. These are real, contracted revenues.
The orbital infrastructure layer Anderson is really talking about
Anderson pointed to orbital infrastructure powering terrestrial markets, which is the direct-to-device, lunar logistics, and on-orbit servicing layer. AST SpaceMobile (NASDAQ:ASTS) is the cleanest pure play, with a market cap around $19.6 billion.
Additionally, it has nearly 60 MNO partners covering more than 3 billion subscribers, and a reaffirmed FY26 revenue range of $150 million to $200 million. Q1 revenue of $14.74 million missed the $36.58 million consensus, and shares are down year to date after a 9.65% one-month plunge.
Moreover, there’s Intuitive Machines (NASDAQ:LUNR).
It sits on a $1.06 billion backlog, guides FY26 revenue of $900 million to $1 billion, and holds a $6.2 billion ceiling Andromeda IDIQ with the Space Force.
Per CEO Steve Altemus, next phase of space is defined by “who can build the infrastructure, connect it reliably, and operate it at scale.”
Furthermore, there’s Redwire (NYSE:RDW).
It is the smallest, with a market cap of $2.15 billion. The company has exposure to the same Andromeda contract vehicle. Anderson also flagged Lunar Outpost’s recent $220 million NASA lunar terrain vehicle award.
What to watch from here
The combined public market caps of these five names sit well under SpaceX’s roughly $2 trillion valuation. This is against a SpaceX comp roughly 20 times larger.
Anderson’s argument boils down to a rerating thesis. The next move depends on whether public investors decide orbital infrastructure deserves software multiples or whether the past month’s drawdowns mean the rerating already overshot. Watch backlog conversion, Neutron’s debut, and AST’s BlueBird cadence into the back half of 2026.
Act now: the analyst who called NVIDIA in 2010 just named his top 10 AI stocks — and SpaceX didn’t make the cut. Grab the names FREE today.
The post A 10-Year SpaceX Investor Says the $2 Trillion Price Tag Is Still Too Cheap appeared first on 24/7 Wall St..
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