Daily market key data review and trend analysis, jointly produced by PANews and OSL.Daily market key data review and trend analysis, jointly produced by PANews and OSL.

OSL Trading Hours: Bitcoin long-term holders' reduction slows down, bull market signals still exist

2025/01/13 11:25

OSL Trading Hours: Bitcoin long-term holders' reduction slows down, bull market signals still exist

1. Market observation

Keywords: ETH, ETF, BTC

In the past week, the cryptocurrency industry has seen a number of important developments. MicroStrategy's Bitcoin holdings increased significantly by 51%, and unrealized gains exceeded the $14 billion mark. It is worth noting that crypto KOL Jeremie Davinci predicted that Bitcoin is expected to reach $350,000 based on historical trends and current mining cost analysis.

Meanwhile, BlackRock, the world's largest asset management company, is expected to have differences with Trump, who may return to the White House, on crypto policy. Market research firm Glassnode said that Bitcoin prices are about 12% lower than their historical highs, and long-term holders (LTH) are still reducing their holdings, but the pace has slowed down. The 30-day supply change rate shows that the reduction may reach a cyclical peak. History shows that prices may continue to rise after the LTH reduction peak.

At the institutional level, some Meta shareholders have proposed to include Bitcoin in the company's reserves. Listed companies, led by MicroStrategy, continue to actively hoard Bitcoin, which is seen as a positive response to the successful launch of the US Bitcoin ETF. It is worth mentioning that with the rise of AI meme coins such as iDEGEN, some investors regard them as "Bitcoin alternatives." Mainstream investors and traders remain optimistic about the market outlook and believe that the activity of key addresses may push Bitcoin above $100,000.

This week, there was also a piece of regrettable news that a British man lost about 8,000 bitcoins because his girlfriend accidentally threw away a hard drive. However, there was good news from the regulatory level. North Dakota is considering using state funds to invest in bitcoin. Crypto expert Timothy Peterson made a bolder prediction that the price of bitcoin is expected to reach $1.5 million in 2035. However, the recent fluctuations in the price of bitcoin also remind investors to be wary of potential market risks.

2. Key data (as of 09:37 HKT on January 13)

  • S&P 500: 5,827.04 (-0.93% year-to-date)

  • Nasdaq: 19,161.63 (-0.77% year-to-date)

  • 10-year Treasury yield: 4.769% (+19.30 basis points this year)

  • US dollar index: 109.63 (+1.06% year-to-date)

  • Bitcoin: $95,156 (+1.86% YTD), with daily spot volume of $19.37 billion

  • Ethereum: $3,300.76 (-1.31% year-to-date), with a daily spot volume of $9.97 billion

3. ETF flows (January 10 EST)

  • Bitcoin ETF: -$149.35 million

  • Ethereum ETF: -$68.48 million

4. Important Dates (Hong Kong Time)

Non-farm payrolls data (January 10, 21:30)

  • Actual: 256,000 / Previous: 227,000 / Expected: 150,000

Unemployment rate (January 10, 21:30)

  • Actual: 4.1% / Previous: 4.2% / Expected: 4.2%

PPI month-on-month (January 14, 21:30)

  • Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.4% / Expected: 0.3%

Core inflation rate year-on-year (January 15, 21:30)

  • Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 4.2% / Expected: 4.2%

Year-on-year inflation rate (January 15, 21:30)

  • Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 2.7% / Expected: 2.8%

Retail sales year-on-year (January 16, 21:30)

  • Actual: To be announced / Previous value: 0.7% / Expected: 0.5%

5. Hot News

This week's preview | Usual Protocol plans to enable the revenue switch function; Ondo (ONDO) and other tokens will usher in large-scale unlocking

Data: ONDO, CHEEL, CONX and other tokens will usher in large-scale unlocking, among which CHEEL unlocking value is about 169 million US dollars

Macro Outlook This Week: CPI and "terrible data" may overturn expectations of rate cuts, and the Fed turns to a cautious stance

Aave: ZKsync Era market grew 160% in the past week

Azuki: ANIME tokens will be launched on Ethereum and Arbitrum in January, with 50.5% allocated to the community

US AI startup financing hits record high of $97 billion in 2024, with global investment concentrated on AI

FTX announces initial repayment schedule, with first repayment expected to start on February 25

26 of 31 publicly traded Bitcoin mining companies have seen their stock prices rise so far this year

Polymarket is defined as an illegal gambling website in Singapore and blocked

Aiccelerate DAO will increase token vesting in response to criticism of startup

USDC Treasury mints 250 million USDC on Solana chain

TON Ecosystem MEME Project DOGS Releases Development Roadmap for the First Half of 2025

Nasdaq-listed spirits company Heritage Distilling plans to build up Bitcoin reserves and accept it as payment

Dakota State proposes digital asset and precious metals reserves

An employee of the National Center for Public Policy Research submitted a shareholder proposal for Bitcoin reserves to Meta on behalf of his family

FDIC Vice Chairman Calls for More Open Attitude toward Crypto

New Hampshire introduces bill to create ‘strategic bitcoin reserve’

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Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94%

BitcoinWorld Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% The financial world is buzzing with a significant development: the probability of a Fed rate cut in October has just seen a dramatic increase. This isn’t just a minor shift; it’s a monumental change that could ripple through global markets, including the dynamic cryptocurrency space. For anyone tracking economic indicators and their impact on investments, this update from the U.S. interest rate futures market is absolutely crucial. What Just Happened? Unpacking the FOMC Statement’s Impact Following the latest Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) statement, market sentiment has decisively shifted. Before the announcement, the U.S. interest rate futures market had priced in a 71.6% chance of an October rate cut. However, after the statement, this figure surged to an astounding 94%. This jump indicates that traders and analysts are now overwhelmingly confident that the Federal Reserve will lower interest rates next month. Such a high probability suggests a strong consensus emerging from the Fed’s latest communications and economic outlook. A Fed rate cut typically means cheaper borrowing costs for businesses and consumers, which can stimulate economic activity. But what does this really signify for investors, especially those in the digital asset realm? Why is a Fed Rate Cut So Significant for Markets? When the Federal Reserve adjusts interest rates, it sends powerful signals across the entire financial ecosystem. A rate cut generally implies a more accommodative monetary policy, often enacted to boost economic growth or combat deflationary pressures. Impact on Traditional Markets: Stocks: Lower interest rates can make borrowing cheaper for companies, potentially boosting earnings and making stocks more attractive compared to bonds. Bonds: Existing bonds with higher yields might become more valuable, but new bonds will likely offer lower returns. Dollar Strength: A rate cut can weaken the U.S. dollar, making exports cheaper and potentially benefiting multinational corporations. Potential for Cryptocurrency Markets: The cryptocurrency market, while often seen as uncorrelated, can still react significantly to macro-economic shifts. A Fed rate cut could be interpreted as: Increased Risk Appetite: With traditional investments offering lower returns, investors might seek higher-yielding or more volatile assets like cryptocurrencies. Inflation Hedge Narrative: If rate cuts are perceived as a precursor to inflation, assets like Bitcoin, often dubbed “digital gold,” could gain traction as an inflation hedge. Liquidity Influx: A more accommodative monetary environment generally means more liquidity in the financial system, some of which could flow into digital assets. Looking Ahead: What Could This Mean for Your Portfolio? While the 94% probability for a Fed rate cut in October is compelling, it’s essential to consider the nuances. Market probabilities can shift, and the Fed’s ultimate decision will depend on incoming economic data. Actionable Insights: Stay Informed: Continue to monitor economic reports, inflation data, and future Fed statements. Diversify: A diversified portfolio can help mitigate risks associated with sudden market shifts. Assess Risk Tolerance: Understand how a potential rate cut might affect your specific investments and adjust your strategy accordingly. This increased likelihood of a Fed rate cut presents both opportunities and challenges. It underscores the interconnectedness of traditional finance and the emerging digital asset space. Investors should remain vigilant and prepared for potential volatility. The financial landscape is always evolving, and the significant surge in the probability of an October Fed rate cut is a clear signal of impending change. From stimulating economic growth to potentially fueling interest in digital assets, the implications are vast. Staying informed and strategically positioned will be key as we approach this crucial decision point. The market is now almost certain of a rate cut, and understanding its potential ripple effects is paramount for every investor. Frequently Asked Questions (FAQs) Q1: What is the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC)? A1: The FOMC is the monetary policymaking body of the Federal Reserve System. It sets the federal funds rate, which influences other interest rates and economic conditions. Q2: How does a Fed rate cut impact the U.S. dollar? A2: A rate cut typically makes the U.S. dollar less attractive to foreign investors seeking higher returns, potentially leading to a weakening of the dollar against other currencies. Q3: Why might a Fed rate cut be good for cryptocurrency? A3: Lower interest rates can reduce the appeal of traditional investments, encouraging investors to seek higher returns in alternative assets like cryptocurrencies. It can also be seen as a sign of increased liquidity or potential inflation, benefiting assets like Bitcoin. Q4: Is a 94% probability a guarantee of a rate cut? A4: While a 94% probability is very high, it is not a guarantee. Market probabilities reflect current sentiment and data, but the Federal Reserve’s final decision will depend on all available economic information leading up to their meeting. Q5: What should investors do in response to this news? A5: Investors should stay informed about economic developments, review their portfolio diversification, and assess their risk tolerance. Consider how potential changes in interest rates might affect different asset classes and adjust strategies as needed. Did you find this analysis helpful? Share this article with your network to keep others informed about the potential impact of the upcoming Fed rate cut and its implications for the financial markets! To learn more about the latest crypto market trends, explore our article on key developments shaping Bitcoin price action. This post Crucial Fed Rate Cut: October Probability Surges to 94% first appeared on BitcoinWorld.
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