Although PENDLE shows a strong daily rise (%10.42) at the $1.30 level, it remains under general downtrend pressure and is approaching critical resistances. This situation makes both upside breakout and downside pullback scenarios equally likely, a crossroads point that traders need to watch carefully.
Current Market Situation
PENDLE is currently trading at $1.30 and recorded an impressive %10.42 rise in the last 24 hours, with the daily range staying between $1.17 – $1.35. Although volume at $55.54M is supportive, the overall trend continues as downtrend. Technical indicators show RSI at 39.31 in the neutral-bearish zone, MACD giving a bullish signal with a positive histogram, but trading below the short-term EMA20 ($1.41) maintains bearish pressure. Supertrend is giving a bearish signal and $1.70 resistance is critical. Support levels are $1.1088 (strength score 72/100) and $1.2531 (66/100); resistances are $1.3743 (64/100) and $1.4919 (62/100). Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis shows balanced 10 strong levels in 1D/3D/1W (2S/2R per timeframe), with the market in balance but awaiting a breakout. Risk/reward ratio appears balanced based on bullish target $2.0840 (35 score) and bearish target $0.4977 (22 score).
Scenario 1: Bullish Scenario
How Does This Scenario Occur?
For the bullish scenario, a clear break and close above the $1.3743 resistance is required first. Once this level is surpassed, passing EMA20 ($1.41) can confirm a short-term trend change. Confirmation signals such as RSI rising above 50, MACD histogram expansion, and volume increase of +%20 are critical. Supertrend turning bullish (if $1.70 resistance is surpassed) strengthens momentum. In MTF, bullish alignment in 1D (2 resistance breaks) activates 3D/1W supports. Volume increase and general altcoin rally (if BTC is stable) trigger this scenario. If no pullback occurs without testing $1.4919 after the breakout, the scenario remains valid; invalidation occurs with a break below $1.2531 support.
Target Levels
First target $1.4919 (medium-term resistance), followed by Supertrend resistance $1.70 and final bullish target $2.0840 (high-score extension). Fibonacci extension levels and MTF resistances support these targets. Potential R/R ratio around 1:3, but be cautious in volume-less rises. Traders should confirm the $1.3743 breakout with volume.
Scenario 2: Bearish Scenario
Risk Factors
The bearish scenario is triggered by rejection at $1.3743 resistance; a close below $1.30 tests $1.2531 support. If RSI falls below 30, selling pressure increases before oversold, and if MACD histogram turns negative, momentum becomes bearish. Supertrend remaining bearish and volume increasing in the selling direction heightens risk. BTC downtrend (detailed below) crushes altcoins, accelerating if general market fear is added. In MTF, bearish breakout in 1D (2 supports) aligns 3D/1W levels. Invalidation occurs with a close above $1.3743; if $1.2531 holds, the downside remains limited.
Protection Levels
First protection $1.2531 (medium support), if broken $1.1088 is critical. Below it, $0.4977 is the final bearish target (low score but strong). For short positions, stop-loss above $1.3743 is recommended, R/R around 1:2.5. Expect bounces on volume-less tests at supports, follow on strong breaks.
Which Scenario to Watch?
Key triggers: For bullish, $1.3743 + volume + RSI>50; for bearish, $1.2531 break + MACD negative. Daily closes are decisive; EMA crossovers on 4H give early warnings. Monitor volume profile and MTF alignment. Invalidation levels are clear for both scenarios: Below $1.2531 for bullish, above $1.3743 for bearish. Be cautious of false breakouts when market volume is low, follow current data from PENDLE Spot Analysis and PENDLE Futures Analysis pages.
Bitcoin Correlation
BTC at $69,769 level +%1 in downtrend; Supertrend bearish. Altcoins like PENDLE have high correlation to BTC (%0.85+), if BTC breaks $68,833 support, altcoin sales accelerate and PENDLE bearish scenario strengthens. Conversely, if BTC surpasses $71,248 resistance ($75,163 target), PENDLE catches bullish momentum. Rising BTC dominance signals altcoin-less rally, $65,415 BTC support correlates with PENDLE $1.1088. Prioritize monitoring BTC levels: Below $68k bearish, above $71k bullish for altcoins.
Conclusion and Monitoring Notes
PENDLE around $1.30 is a critical balance; both scenarios will be shaped by volume and BTC. Watchlist: $1.3743/$1.2531 breaks, RSI/MACD divergences, BTC $68k-$71k movements. Prioritize daily/4H charts, follow news flow (even if none). Traders should enter positions with risk management (stop-loss mandatory), this analysis is for educational purposes to help form your own decisions. Visit PENDLE spot and futures pages for detailed data.
This analysis uses Chief Analyst Devrim Cacal’s market views and methodology.
Source: https://en.coinotag.com/analysis/pendle-technical-analysis-february-14-2026-will-it-rise-or-fall
