Bitcoin Price Down 22% YTD as It Nears Worst First Quarter in 8 Years

Bitcoin is on track to make history, but not the kind investors were hoping for. The world’s largest cryptocurrency has fallen 22.3% since the start of the year and could post its weakest first quarter in eight years.

In January, Bitcoin traded near $87,700. It now hovers around $69,000, marking a nearly $20,000 decline in a matter of weeks. If losses continue, this could become Bitcoin’s worst Q1 performance since 2018, when it plunged 49.7% during the peak of a brutal bear market.

Key Highlights

• Bitcoin has fallen 22.3% year-to-date, putting it on pace for its worst first quarter since 2018.
• January and February both posted losses, raising the risk of a rare back-to-back red start to the year.
• Historical data shows first-quarter losses do not reliably predict how the rest of the year will unfold.

A Rare and Painful Start to the Year

Data shows Bitcoin has recorded losses in seven of the past thirteen first quarters. That means early-year weakness is not unusual — it has happened more than half the time.

Still, 2025 is shaping up to be particularly challenging. January closed down 10.17%, and February has so far posted a 13.18% decline. If February remains negative, it would mark the first time Bitcoin has closed both January and February in the red in the same year.

To avoid that scenario, Bitcoin would need to reclaim the $80,000 level — a move that currently appears difficult given prevailing market momentum.

Does a Weak Q1 Predict the Rest of the Year?

History offers a more nuanced perspective than the headlines suggest. In eight of the last thirteen years, the second quarter delivered the opposite performance of the first. In other words, early losses often failed to determine the direction of the months that followed.

This pattern challenges the idea that a weak first quarter seals Bitcoin’s fate for the year. While volatility remains elevated, longer-term structure and macro conditions may ultimately matter more than short-term drawdowns.

Market Structure Adds Complexity

Over the past 18 to 24 months, Bitcoin has not traded within a single dominant long-term trend. Instead, it has moved through shorter rotational phases lasting several months at a time. This environment makes momentum harder to sustain, but it also increases the potential for sharp reversals.

For investors, the key question is no longer just how deep the current correction runs, but whether the broader structure remains intact. If historical tendencies hold true, the coming quarter could look very different from the first.