Peter Schiff Warns of $20K BTC Crash—Is It Breaking or Following Cycle?

• Peter Schiff warns Bitcoin could fall to $20,000, advising investors to sell.
• Critics push back that Bitcoin follows predictable multi-year pump-and-crash cycles.
• Bitcoin is testing the crucial 200-week EMA support zone.

A fresh debate has erupted on X after long-time Bitcoin critic Peter Schiff warned that Bitcoin could fall as low as $20,000 if it breaks below $50,000.

Bitcoin is currently trading around $66,000, after recently peaking near $126,000. Schiff argues that if the $50K level fails, a deeper drop is not just possible, it is possible

“If Bitcoin breaks $50K, which looks likely, it seems highly likely it will at least test $20K,” he wrote. He added that such a move would represent an 84% drop from the all-time high, something Bitcoin has experienced before.

But this time, he says, the stakes are much higher due to “so much hype, leverage, institutional ownership, and market cap at stake.” His conclusion was simple and direct:  “Sell Bitcoin now!”

Critics Push Back: “This Is Just the Cycle”

Schiff’s comments quickly drew pushback from traders and Bitcoin supporters.

Some questioned the technical basis for his prediction, arguing that Bitcoin has historically followed a three-to-four-year cycle of pump, crash, accumulation, and then recovery.

One user pointed out that Bitcoin has already completed the “pump to $126K” and the “crash phase,” and may now be entering accumulation again. From this perspective, the next major rally could follow months of consolidation.

Others argued that while Schiff’s math is technically correct but ‘lazy’.  An 84% drop from $126K does equal roughly $20K, but it ignores current support levels near $66k. The next major technical support is seen around $50,000–$52,000, not $20,000.

In other words, a drop to $50K would represent a 58% decline from the peak, not 84%.

Related: Bitcoin $40,000 Put Builds Into Second-Largest Options Position Ahead of Feb. 27 Expiry

The Core Divide: Intrinsic Value vs. Market Cycles

The debate goes beyond price targets.

Schiff and his supporters argue that Bitcoin has “no intrinsic value” and is driven mainly by speculation, leverage, and liquidation cascades rather than production or real economic output. Some critics even describe crypto markets as wealth transfer mechanisms fueled by hype.

On the other side, Bitcoin advocates say institutions are not exiting but accumulating. They argue that volatility is normal for an emerging asset class and that long-term adoption trends still favor Bitcoin.

This argument is not new. Schiff has been warning of Bitcoin collapse since it traded under $100. Yet Bitcoin has repeatedly recovered after major drawdowns.

Bitcoin Short-Term Trajectory

Bitcoin is currently trading around $67,763, up about 1.2% in the last 24 hours, with a market cap near $1.35 trillion. Despite the small daily gain, the bigger concern is happening on the weekly chart. An analyst noted that Bitcoin is now slipping below the 200-week EMA, which sits near $68,300.

Source: X

In earlier bear markets like 2019 and 2022, Bitcoin tested this level before recovering. But when it closed below it and turned into resistance, the price dropped further. Now BTC is again testing the $66,000–$68,000 zone. If it loses this support on a weekly close, more downside could follow. 

Related: Here’s BTC Price Outlook for Feb 20 According to ChatGPT, Claude, and Grok