What to Expect From Trump’s State of the Union Tonight

US President Donald Trump takes the podium before a joint session of Congress tonight to deliver the first State of the Union address of his second term. The speech, scheduled for 02:00 GMT, arrives at a moment when the President is contending with political headwinds on nearly every front, and when the stakes for his party couldn’t be higher with midterm elections just nine months away.

The backdrop alone tells a story: This will likely be the first State of the Union delivered during a government shutdown, with the Department of Homeland Security (DHS) unfunded as Democrats and Republicans remain deadlocked over Immigration and Customs Enforcement (ICE) operations. A Washington Post poll released over the weekend shows 60% of Americans disapprove of Trump’s job performance. And just last week, the Supreme Court dealt him a significant blow by striking down the sweeping tariff policy that had been a cornerstone of his second-term economic agenda.

Brink of strikes

The most closely watched portion of the speech will almost certainly involve Iran. ABC News has reported that Trump is considering a range of military options, including a possible limited strike aimed at strengthening America’s negotiating position. The White House has been deliberately building anticipation around this topic. When pressed last week on whether the president would address potential strikes during the speech, press secretary Karoline Leavitt was coy but suggestive, telling reporters they’d “be hearing more about what is to come from the president’s speech very soon.”

Tariff fallout

On the economy, Trump faces a messaging challenge: His administration is scrambling to prepare the paperwork to impose limited, yet widespread trade tariffs under Trade Act of 1974 authority, a scaled-back version of the broader framework the Supreme Court just invalidated. Voters have consistently given him poor marks on economic management, and the President has signaled he plans to focus on “affordability,” a word that suggests an effort to meet Americans where their frustrations actually lie rather than re-litigating trade policy in the abstract.

Losing ground

Immigration was once Trump’s strongest card; that is no longer the case. Public support for his mass deportation agenda has fallen sharply after federal immigration agents shot and killed two American citizens last month, an incident that shifted the political ground beneath the administration’s feet. The ongoing DHS shutdown compounds the problem. Rather than play defense, the White House says Trump will call on congressional Democrats to reopen the department, an attempt to redirect blame and reclaim the initiative.

Beyond these flashpoints, the president is expected to tout what he views as his first-year accomplishments: record deportation numbers, deregulation, and efforts to broker peace in several global conflicts. He’ll almost certainly frame these as reasons to keep Republicans in power come November, making the speech as much a campaign address as a constitutional obligation.

The optics war

The political theater surrounding the event is worth noting as well. Dozens of congressional Democrats plan to boycott entirely, attending a MoveOn.org counter-event on the National Mall instead. Meanwhile, several House Democrats have invited survivors of Jeffrey Epstein as their guests, a pointed bit of counter-programming. On the lighter side, Trump has invited the US men’s Olympic hockey team, fresh off their gold medal victory in Milan.

Virginia Governor Abigail Spanberger will deliver the Democratic response. Her selection is itself a statement: Spanberger flipped the Virginia governor’s mansion from red to blue last November, becoming the state’s first woman governor in a race widely seen as a warning sign for Republicans heading into 2026.

The long night ahead

Trump has promised a long night; “It’s going to be a long speech because we have so much to talk about,” he said over the weekend. Last year’s address to a joint session ran 99 minutes. Whether tonight’s speech changes his political trajectory or merely underscores the challenges he faces will depend largely on what he says about Iran, and whether the country is convinced by his pitch on everything else.