Over the last weekend, President Trump’s unusual lack of public appearances led to viral rumors about his death. Although he seems perfectly fine, the speculation fueled over $1.6 million in prediction market gambling.
These markets seem particularly troubling, especially because Donald Trump Jr. is an advisor at both Polymarket and Kalshi. Controversial new prediction markets could launch in the future, especially if they prove to be this lucrative.
Trump Death Rumors Take Off
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In today’s high-intensity information environment, totally fictitious events can quickly spin out of control. Case in point, rumors of President Trump’s impending demise took a life of their own this weekend.
It was a major US holiday, and Trump had very few public appearances, leading to viral and unfounded claims that he was approaching his death:
Now that Labor Day has passed, President Trump is very much alive. He addressed these rumors over an unrelated announcement, calling their virality “sort of crazy.”
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Nonetheless, these rumors led to an interesting phenomenon: over $1.6 million in prediction market bets over whether or not Trump would leave office in 2025.
Kalshi opened its Trump prediction market on Saturday, seeing over $700,000 in action, while Polymarket’s bets began last night.
In other words, more than half of these gamblers were betting on a market that would directly pay out in the event of Trump’s death. Kalshi, at least, would only accept resignation or other nonfatal ouster.
A Telling Market Development
This frenzy of trading activity signals an intense interest in the subject, even if gamblers never had more than 13% confidence that Trump’s death or exit from office would actually happen.
Several press outlets theorized that he might be announcing his resignation today (which would also fulfill the bets’ conditions), but that’s not the main concern.
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What is relevant, however, is that Donald Trump Jr. has an advisory role in both companies that offered gambling on his father’s potential death.
That seems like an ethical landmine for a host of reasons, not least of which that Trump is the sitting US President. And yet, these markets took off unabated.
Some journalists have theorized that these prediction markets are trying to push the limits of Web3-related law enforcement under Trump.
After all, Polymarket is theoretically banned in the US, but this is hardly enforced. Kalshi has extensive ties with Brian Quintenz, who will allegedly become the CFTC’s sole Commissioner if confirmed.
In other words, these bets on Trump’s death rumors have many potential implications. On one hand, it was an amusing and short-lived meme that fell apart as soon as the President hosted a press conference.
On the other hand, though, it’s a troubling development. With this precedent established, more unsavory prediction markets could follow in the future.
Source: https://beincrypto.com/trump-death-rumors-polymarket-kalshi-gambling/
