Mysterious account accurately bets on airstrikes against Iran, Trump campaign embroiled in "insider trading" charges.
PANews reported on March 2nd that, according to Jinshi, over the weekend, with traditional global financial markets closed, a large amount of capital flowed into prediction markets such as Polymarket and Kalshi, as well as decentralized exchanges like Hyperliquid. Investors attempted to use these platforms to hedge against or speculate on the aftermath of the US and Israeli attacks on Iran. However, this capital frenzy quickly turned into a media storm. Last Saturday, numerous accusations emerged on the social media platform X, alleging that some insiders exploited their prior knowledge of the military strikes to profit excessively in the prediction markets.
In response to criticism, a White House spokesperson argued to the media that "the only special interest guiding the Trump administration's decisions is the best interests of the American people." In fact, crackdowns on insider betting using international conflicts have already begun in parts of the world. Facing accusations, Kalshi CEO Tarek Mansour defended himself by stating that he would refund all transaction fees incurred by users participating in the controversial market, and that positions established before Khamenei's death would be forcibly liquidated at the last traded price. However, this "liquidation" decision did not quell the controversy; many users instead complained on social media that they felt tricked by the platform.
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