SOL Technical Analysis Mar 5

SOL’s market structure is still maintaining the downtrend, LH/LL formation dominant but with the recent recovery, short-term HL formation observed above the $86.67 support level – will we see trend continuation or a change with CHoCH?

Market Structure Overview

SOL’s current market structure continues to exhibit downtrend characteristics overall. Instead of Higher Highs (HH) and Higher Lows (HL), Lower Highs (LH) and Lower Lows (LL) formation dominates; this is clearly visible in the swing points formed in recent months. Current price at $90.09 level and trading in the $84.78-$94.05 range with a 24-hour 3.81% rise. Positioned above short-term EMA20 ($87.16), showing a bullish short-term bias, but Supertrend bearish signal supported by $109.91 resistance. RSI 51.17 in neutral zone, MACD positive histogram indicating signs of momentum shifting in favor. In multi-timeframe (MTF) structure, 12 strong levels detected in 1D/3D/1W timeframes: 3 supports/3 resistances in 1D, 3S/1R in 3D, 2S/3R balance in 1W. This structure emphasizes the fragility of the trend; it carries potential for rapid change with any BOS (Break of Structure).

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

For an uptrend, HH/HL structure formation is required. In the recent period, holding above the $86.6726 swing low (score: 76/100) draws a potential Higher Low (HL) line – this is a higher low than $78.3690 (66/100). Price testing $92.0983 (67/100) and $94.05 daily high supports the short-term HL. Closing above EMA20 and MACD bullish crossover signal upward momentum. However, for a real bullish trend, it needs to break the last LH at $98.5337 (70/100) and form a new HH. If this happens, continuation targets $108.1200 (68/100); structural target $131.3546 (25 score).

Downtrend Risk

Downtrend confirmed with LH/LL: Recent swing highs progressively lower ($108.12 → $98.53 → $92.10), lows also in LL series (preceding $86.67). Supertrend bearish and BTC downtrend influence mean a break below $86.6726 confirms LL, bringing LL continuation to $78.3690 and $67.5000 (60/100). Even with RSI at 51, there’s bearish divergence risk on drop below 50. Market doing short-term bounce without breaking general LH/LL character; if it can’t hold above $94, LH continues.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

BOS levels confirm trend change. Bullish BOS: Closing above $98.5337 swing high – this invalidates the last LH and signals transition to HH/HL structure (CHoCH potential). Then $108.1200 is tested. Bearish BOS: Break below $86.6726 swing low – strengthens downtrend with LL confirmation, opens path to $78.3690. These levels strong in MTF (1D/3D supported); if break comes with volume, displacement expected. Invalidation: Below $86.67 for bullish, above $98.53 closing for bearish breaks the structure. Nearby $92.0983 minor resistance critical for quick BOS test.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $98.5337 (70/100, main LH level – key for BOS), $108.1200 (68/100, previous major high, trend continuation resistance), $92.0983 (67/100, latest minor high). These points form the roof of the downtrend; BOS above $98.53 turns structure bullish. As price approaches $94.05, $92.10 retest clarifies LH or HH question. Scores show these levels as high-probability reaction zones.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $86.6726 (76/100, strong support – current bounce from here), $78.3690 (66/100, intermediate support), $67.5000 (60/100, major low). These lows define the LL series; holding $86.67 gives HL hope, but break opens bearish targets ($45.4027, 22 score). Swing lows test buyers as support; hold requires volume increase.

Bitcoin Correlation

SOL highly correlated with BTC (%0.85+); BTC in downtrend at $72,353 despite 6.20% rise, Supertrend bearish. BTC key supports $72,025 / $68,918 / $62,970; break below $72K triggers bearish CHoCH in altcoins. Resistances $74,427 / $78,962 / $83,330 – BTC breakout above $74K supports SOL $98+ BOS. BTC dominance rise pressures SOL; caution: BTC weakness accelerates LL in alts. Follow SOL Spot Analysis for SOL spot, SOL Futures Analysis for futures.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Structural outlook focused on downtrend (LH/LL dominant), but balanced with $86.67 HL and short-term bullish bias above EMA20. BOS levels ($98.53 bull / $86.67 bear) should be monitored; displacement required for CHoCH. MTF strong levels suggest consolidation, lack of news keeps it technically driven. Traders should use swing points as liquidity targets – structures evolve quickly, risk management essential. Overall: Bearish bias assuming trend continuation, but $98+ required for bounce continuation.