Analyzing why crypto is trending again DESPITE markets being in ‘extreme fear’

Rising geopolitical tensions usually push investors towards traditionally safe assets like gold. However, in the first week of March 2026, even as geopolitical tensions intensified, the crypto market reacted somewhat differently than expected.

In the wake of the war between Iran and United States, Israel, global crypto markets recovered a little. In fact, escalating tensions in the Middle East were followed by social data highlighting a hike in attention around Bitcoin [BTC], Aave [AAVE], Uniswap [UNI], and more. 

However, despite the surge in online discussions, the Fear & Greed Index is still flashing fear. While at press time it had a reading of 22, it fell to a low of 10 just yesterday. 

Bitcoin, Aave, and Uniswap gain traction – Why?

According to Santiment, while Bitcoin (BTC) is continuing to dominate social media discussions in the crypto market, the sentiment around it is divided.

On one hand, on X, many users are focusing on positive developments such as 4–7% daily gains and steady inflows into Bitcoin ETFs. These have helped push BTC into the $70,000-range.

However, at the same time, discussions on Telegram and Reddit have increasingly shifted towards Bitcoin-related scams.

Many channels are flooded by scams offering “Flash BTC” or discounted USDT, which is technically impossible on the Bitcoin network.

As a result, even though social interest is rising, overall sentiment remains mixed.

Next in line is Aave, which recently surpassed $1 trillion in cumulative lending volume. Alas, community sentiment remains muted due to governance concerns following the exit of the Aave Chan Initiative (ACI) and earlier departure of BGD Labs.

Meanwhile, Uniswap secured a legal victory after a U.S court ruled that Uniswap Labs cannot be held responsible for third-party scam tokens.

However, despite the good news for Uniswap, concerns among users persist as many report wallet connection issues and other concerns about dusting attacks.

What this means is that the rise in social sentiment may not be fueled by entirely positive expectations.

Is the data supporting the sentiment?

At the time of writing, Santiment revealed a mixed trend between Bitcoin’s social engagement and market sentiment in recent months.

While the number of active social users discussing BTC steadily increased, weighted sentiment has remained volatile and mostly near neutral.

A sharp drop in early February 2026 reflected a surge in negative discussions, likely tied to market stress, but sentiment quickly recovered – A sign that the pessimism was short-lived.

Meanwhile, the weighted sentiment for Aave and Uniswap from August 2025 to mid-February 2026 highlighted something interesting. Both tokens showed frequent swings between positive and negative sentiment, reflecting how DeFi discussions react quickly to market events and news.

While AAVE’s sentiment mostly stayed near neutral with brief spikes of optimism, UNI experienced stronger positive phases but also sharper drops during periods of market stress.

Meanwhile, the surge in Google searches for “Bitcoin going to zero” in February 2026 underlined the intense fear present in the market. While extreme fear can signal potential long-term opportunities, the recovery this time may be slower.

Thus, with so many developments unfolding, it remains to be seen what happens next.

Final Summary

• A hike in discussions is symbolic of attention, but “extreme fear” suggested that investors remain hesitant.
• Rising social activity often attracts fraudulent schemes that distort online sentiment.