Nexi (NEXI.MI) Stock Drops 20% After Q4 Miss and Cautious Guidance

TLDR

• Nexi fell over 20% to a record low after Q4 revenue and EBITDA came in slightly below expectations.
• The company’s 2026 guidance signals earnings could be revised lower by analysts.
• Revenue growth is expected to remain flat in 2026, in line with 2025’s 2.1% rise.
• Nexi plans to generate €2.4 billion in excess cash between 2026–2028 and return over €1.1 billion to shareholders.
• The three-year strategy targets a return to mid-single-digit revenue growth by 2028.

Nexi, the Italian payments group, had a rough Thursday. The stock crashed more than 20% to a record low after the company posted slightly weaker-than-expected fourth-quarter numbers and laid out a cautious three-year plan that analysts say points to earnings downgrades ahead.

The sell-off was swift and steep, though some analysts think the market may have overreacted.

Q4 revenue came in flat at €942.5 million, roughly 1% below consensus. EBITDA slipped to €508.6 million, about 2% below what analysts had pencilled in. Costs edged up year on year to €433.9 million.

The results were weighed down by the ongoing fallout from bank merchant-book M&A activity and contract renegotiations. Nexi said the impact of these pressures peaked in Q4 2025, but warned they’ll continue to drag through 2026 before easing.

2026 Looks Flat

For 2026, Nexi expects revenue performance to remain broadly in line with 2025, when top-line growth came in at 2.1%. EBITDA is expected to hold roughly stable as the company continues to invest in strategic initiatives.

The broader context matters here. New technology is disrupting the payments industry, allowing smaller players to undercut traditional firms. Legacy operators like Nexi, which built its business by acquiring banks’ payment divisions, are particularly exposed to this shift.

Three-Year Plan and Cash Returns

Nexi’s new midterm strategy calls for a pivot toward mid-sized companies to defend market share, with full-year revenue growth targeted to reach mid-single digits by 2028. EBITDA margin expansion is expected by the end of the plan period.

The company forecasts around €2.4 billion in excess cash generation over 2026–2028, including roughly €750 million this year after strategic spending and higher taxes.

Nexi also proposed a dividend of €0.30 per share, with plans to raise the payout by at least 5% annually over the next three years. Total distributions to shareholders are projected to exceed €1.1 billion by 2028.

Bertoluzzo framed the cash return commitment as a way to reassure investors about the resilience of the business model during what the company calls a “transition year.”

Despite the sharp drop, some analysts noted that the 2025 earnings miss was modest and that the medium-term forecasts weren’t dramatically off from prior expectations.

Q4 2025 marked the peak of the contract renegotiation impact, according to Nexi, with the drag expected to gradually ease from here.

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