WTI surged over 6% on Thursday, blowing through $80 per barrel for the first time since June 2024 and extending one of the sharpest rallies in recent years. Price has gained roughly 19% since the strikes began on February 28, accelerating from around $67 into Thursday’s session high just above $80. The move has left the daily candle as a large-bodied bullish bar with almost no upper wick, suggesting buyers were in control throughout the session with little sign of profit-taking heading toward the market close.
The catalyst is the effective closure of the Strait of Hormuz. Following the joint US-Israeli operation on February 28, Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC) declared the strait closed on March 2, warning that any vessel attempting to transit would be targeted. Tanker traffic has since dropped to near zero, with at least five vessels damaged and over 150 ships stranded outside the waterway.
Shipping giants Maersk and Hapag-Lloyd have suspended all transits, and Iranian drone strikes on QatarEnergy’s Ras Laffan and Mesaieed facilities took roughly one-fifth of global liquefied natural gas (LNG) export capacity offline. Iraq has begun shutting off production as exports through the strait become increasingly constrained.
OPEC+ moved quickly, agreeing on March 1 to add 206,000 barrels per day in April, above the pre-crisis expectation of 137,000 barrels per day. However, analysts at Rystad Energy noted the increase is largely symbolic while the strait remains inaccessible, as much of the group’s spare capacity sits in Saudi Arabia and the United Arab Emirates (UAE), both of which rely on Gulf export routes. Goldman Sachs warned that a temporary spike to $100 per barrel could slow global growth by 0.4 percentage points.
Friday’s US Nonfarm Payrolls (NFP) report, forecast around 60K, adds further uncertainty to already-weary traders.
WTI daily chart
Technical Analysis
In the daily chart, WTI US OIL trades at $79.78. The near-term bias is bullish as price extends well above both the rising 50-day and 200-day exponential moving averages, confirming a strengthening upside trend structure. The sharp acceleration from the low-$60s has opened a clear topside break from the prior consolidation band, with the Stochastic oscillator pushing into overbought territory and signaling strong but stretched upside momentum. While this warns of the risk of a pause or modest pullback, current positioning of price relative to the moving averages favors dip-buying interest over a deeper reversal as long as recent gains hold above former resistance levels.
Initial support emerges near $74.50–$75.00, where recent breakout levels align with the rising 50-day EMA zone, and a break below there would expose the mid-$70s and then the $70.00–$71.00 area. Below that, the $67.00–$68.00 band marks a deeper corrective floor coinciding with prior consolidation. On the upside, immediate resistance is seen in the low-$80s, where the current rally is testing fresh highs, with a sustained close above that region opening the door toward the mid-$80s. As long as WTI holds above the mid-$70s support cluster, the technical structure points to further upside attempts after potential overbought digestion.
(The technical analysis of this story was written with the help of an AI tool.)
WTI Oil FAQs
WTI Oil is a type of Crude Oil sold on international markets. The WTI stands for West Texas Intermediate, one of three major types including Brent and Dubai Crude. WTI is also referred to as “light” and “sweet” because of its relatively low gravity and sulfur content respectively. It is considered a high quality Oil that is easily refined. It is sourced in the United States and distributed via the Cushing hub, which is considered “The Pipeline Crossroads of the World”. It is a benchmark for the Oil market and WTI price is frequently quoted in the media.
Like all assets, supply and demand are the key drivers of WTI Oil price. As such, global growth can be a driver of increased demand and vice versa for weak global growth. Political instability, wars, and sanctions can disrupt supply and impact prices. The decisions of OPEC, a group of major Oil-producing countries, is another key driver of price. The value of the US Dollar influences the price of WTI Crude Oil, since Oil is predominantly traded in US Dollars, thus a weaker US Dollar can make Oil more affordable and vice versa.
The weekly Oil inventory reports published by the American Petroleum Institute (API) and the Energy Information Agency (EIA) impact the price of WTI Oil. Changes in inventories reflect fluctuating supply and demand. If the data shows a drop in inventories it can indicate increased demand, pushing up Oil price. Higher inventories can reflect increased supply, pushing down prices. API’s report is published every Tuesday and EIA’s the day after. Their results are usually similar, falling within 1% of each other 75% of the time. The EIA data is considered more reliable, since it is a government agency.
OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) is a group of 12 Oil-producing nations who collectively decide production quotas for member countries at twice-yearly meetings. Their decisions often impact WTI Oil prices. When OPEC decides to lower quotas, it can tighten supply, pushing up Oil prices. When OPEC increases production, it has the opposite effect. OPEC+ refers to an expanded group that includes ten extra non-OPEC members, the most notable of which is Russia.
Source: https://www.fxstreet.com/news/wti-crude-oil-tests-north-of-80-for-the-first-time-since-mid-2024-202603051937
