MVRV Cycle Strength Meets $75K-$78K Test

Bitcoin is showing mixed signals as one long term indicator points to a broader cycle recovery while a shorter term chart warns that resistance still stands in the way. Together, the two setups show a market that may still have room to grow later, but first has to survive a critical near term test.

Bitcoin MVRV Z Score Shows Cycle Pattern Linked to Past Bull Markets

A long term Bitcoin chart shared by analyst Ali Martinez shows that earlier bull markets started after the MVRV Z Score dropped to extreme low levels. The indicator, which compares Bitcoin’s market value to its realized value, has historically helped identify periods when the asset traded below its average investor cost basis.

Bitcoin MVRV Z Score Cycle Indicator. Source: Ali Charts / Glassnode

According to the chart, the MVRV Z Score reached around -0.262 during previous market cycle bottoms. Those moments appeared in several past periods, including the market lows around 2015, 2019, and 2022. After each of those signals, Bitcoin eventually moved into a new bullish phase that led to large price expansions.

The visual compares the orange MVRV Z Score line with Bitcoin’s price trend shown in black. In earlier cycles, the indicator fell into negative territory before recovering alongside price. Those periods marked the stage when selling pressure had largely exhausted and long term accumulation started to appear in the market.

However, the chart also shows that the indicator does not stay at those extreme levels for long. Once the market begins recovering, the Z Score tends to move upward quickly. During later stages of the cycle, it often reaches high positive values when the market becomes overheated.

In the current structure, the MVRV Z Score sits above the historic bottom level but remains far below earlier cycle peaks. This position suggests the market is no longer in the deep undervaluation zone that previously marked major bottoms. At the same time, it also does not reflect the overheated conditions that appeared near previous cycle tops.

Because of that, the indicator shows Bitcoin moving in a middle stage of the broader cycle rather than at an extreme turning point. The chart highlights how the MVRV Z Score has repeatedly helped mark major shifts in market sentiment over multiple years.

Bitcoin Relief Bounce Faces Key Fibonacci Resistance Near $75K–$78K

Bitcoin is attempting a short term recovery after a sharp decline earlier in the chart structure. The 12 hour chart shared by analyst Elja shows price rebounding from the recent lows, yet the move is approaching an important Fibonacci resistance zone that previously acted as support.

Bitcoin Fibonacci Resistance Levels. Source: Elja

The chart marks the 0.5 Fibonacci level near $75,220 and the 0.618 level around $78,819 as the main resistance band. These levels come from the broader retracement of the previous downside move. Because of that, the zone now acts as a potential ceiling during the recovery phase.

During the earlier decline, Bitcoin moved below the same retracement levels after failing to hold the upper range near the mid $90,000 area. Once the breakdown occurred, the market accelerated downward before stabilizing and forming a consolidation base.

The current bounce is bringing Bitcoin back toward those retracement levels. In technical analysis, former support areas often turn into resistance once price breaks below them. Therefore, the $75K to $78K region now stands out as the next barrier the market must overcome.

Elja notes that if Bitcoin fails to reclaim this zone, the rejection could trigger another downward leg. In that scenario, the chart projection suggests a possible move toward the $56,000 to $60,000 range, which sits far below the current recovery area.

For now, the structure shows Bitcoin testing whether the bounce can develop into a stronger recovery. However, the Fibonacci resistance zone remains the key technical level that will likely determine the next direction of the market.