Analyst sets Tesla (TSLA) stock price target

After several bearish assessments linked to the anticipated more extensive rollout of ‘FSD,’ Tesla (NASDAQ: TSLA) received a moderately optimistic analysis regarding the self-driving technology from the banking giant Morgan Stanley (NYSE: MS).

Specifically, the company believes that the ‘robotaxi’ – a key extension of the overall program for autonomous vehicles – can ‘create a powerful flywheel’ for the ecosystem of Elon Musk’s electric vehicle (EV) maker. 

Indeed, ‘FSD’ implementation through ‘robotaxis’ is expected to generate a positive feedback loop where incremental improvements should spill over into unsupervised driving for private Tesla vehicles, which should then increase the attractiveness of the service.

Still, despite such a positive assessment, Morgan Stanley’s Andrew Percoco opted for a cautious ‘Hold’ rating for TSLA stock and a mildly optimistic $415 12-month price target – only 6.33% above the car equity’s March 19 press time price of $390.31.

Wall Street sets Tesla stock price target for next 12 months

Zooming out also reveals that Wall Street has turned very cautious about Tesla shares, with the overall rating, as displayed on the stock analysis platform TipRanks in mid-March, being ‘Neutral.’

Similarly, the average price target hints that the next 12 months will be a period of consolidation and will lead TSLA equity to $399.25 – merely 1.65% away from the press time level of $390.31.

Elsewhere, it is noteworthy that bullishness regarding Elon Musk’s car company is not entirely exhausted, as Stifel Nicolaus analyst Stephen Gengaro issued a highly optimistic $508 price target and a ‘Buy’ rating as recently as March 17.

Why analysts are focusing on Tesla FSD in 2026

Reasons why Tesla ‘FSD’ has come into sharp focus in 2026 largely boil down to the ambitious rollout timeline for the spring of the year, and the fact that TSLA stock has, arguably, been historically valued more based on the anticipated technological breakthroughs rather than actual business performance.

Under the circumstances, a successful expansion of the autonomous driving program could halt and reverse the ongoing trend that led to the EV maker’s equity losing 13.21% in the year-to-date (YTD) chart and finding itself at $390.31 on March 19.

Simultaneously, the program has been contentious due to fears that much of the promotional material regarding the technology has been, at best, misleading and that the systems based primarily on cameras and visual data have poor odds of working properly.

The most bearish scenario was laid out earlier this month by the long-standing Tesla critic, Gordon Johnson of GJL Research, who estimated that about 80% of the company’s $1.5 trillion valuation is linked to ‘FSD’ and that, thus, a failure to deliver could lead to the firm losing more than two-thirds of its market capitalization. 

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