Bitcoin Rally to $76K Shows Strength but Lacks Confirmation

Bitcoin’s (BTC) rally to $76,000 revived market optimism for investors, but onchain data suggested that the move may still be part of an early-stage recovery defined by frequent periods of price volatility.

According to Glassnode, BTC price has entered a relatively “open” zone between $72,000 and $82,000, where there’s less resistance.

This range is particularly defined by the UTXO Realized Price Distribution (URPD), which highlights where the investors accumulated their coins. This means BTC may move more freely in the short term within this range, if the momentum holds.

Glassnode explained that a more reliable signal lies in whether the broader market is returning to profitability. The share of Bitcoin supply in profit has climbed back to around 60%, which is a level often seen during the early stages of a recovery. Glassnode added, 

Another key factor is how the market handles the current sell pressure. As Bitcoin climbed above $74,000, the short-term holders began realizing profits at an accelerated pace, with realized gains reaching $18.4 million per hour. 

This mirrors behavior seen in earlier failed rallies, where investors sold into strength, capping the upside momentum. If Bitcoin can absorb this wave of profit-taking and maintain support above $70,000, it increases the chance for a rally into the $78,000 to $82,000 range.

Related: Bitcoin tests old 2021 top as gold falls to six-week lows under $4.7K

Trend indicator remains in bear market territory

From a technical standpoint, the broader trend structure still leans toward caution. On the higher time frames (daily and weekly charts), Bitcoin continues to trade within a pattern of lower highs and lower lows, indicating that a bullish market structure has not been established. 

For a bullish shift, BTC needs to break above its previous lower high near $97,855 and sustain the price action above that level.

This region also aligns with the Fibonacci “golden zone” between the 0.5 and 0.618 retracement levels, an area tracked by traders as a key decision point during trend reversals. 

A clean breakout above this range, followed by consolidation, will suggest a strong demand and increase the likelihood of a long-term rally.

CryptoQuant’s cycle indicator echoes this cautious outlook. The Bitcoin Bull-Bear Cycle indicator remains in bearish territory, improving to -0.72 from -1 earlier this month but still far from confirming a trend reversal. 

For a full bull market confirmation, the indicator needs to move above 1, reflecting sustained positive momentum.

An early signal to watch is a move above the bull-bear 365-day moving average, currently at -0.23. This level acts as a long-term trend filter, smoothing out short-term volatility and highlighting whether the market conditions are shifting to bullish or bearish on the higher time frame. 

Related: Bitcoin ETF inflow streak snaps with $164M outflows amid BTC dip