Bitcoin: How a $1.3B liquidity gap could stall BTC’s next move

Bitcoin [BTC] has been trending higher over the past two weeks. Though it was trading within a longer-term downtrend, it had made a bullish market structure shift on the 4-hour timeframe on the 25th of February. This structural shift saw Bitcoin continue its steady rally.

Since making the local low of $63k on the 28th of February, Bitcoin has gained 12% in three weeks. During this time, the S&P 500 has shed roughly 3.5%. This show of relative strength has given rise to arguments that BTC was acting as a hedge against macroeconomic uncertainty- the old digital gold argument.

The “safe haven” discourse has drawn retail FOMO, reported AMBCrypto. It remains to be seen if retail is right and the current rally has room to grow, or if market participants should adopt a more pessimistic outlook.

Recovery in stablecoin liquidity might not translate into demand

A crypto analyst noted that the 30-day Moving Average (DMA) of the exchange inflow of USDT and USDC has improved in February-March 2026. The 30DMA rose to $3.84 billion on the 10th of February, but had fallen by nearly 30% to $2.74 billion by the 19th of March.

Comparing the 30DMA to the 365DMA showed that the current stablecoin inflow to exchanges was noticeably below the annual norm. According to the analyst, the return of the 30DMA of stablecoin inflows above the yearly average generally indicates a return toward a Bitcoin recovery phase.

As things stand, there was a $1.3 billion gap between the moving averages.

Analyst Darkfost argued the case that inflation risks and geopolitical concerns made it an unfavorable scenario for risk assets such as Bitcoin. The rising U.S. Treasury yields made them attractive as a low-risk return.

In these conditions, BTC is a riskier bet with potentially less capital flow into it. This meant it could take a while longer to escape the crypto bear market, despite recent gains.

The long-term BTC swing structure remains bearish. In the coming weeks, a rally to $83k-$89k is possible. Traders and investors should be prepared to think of this move as a retracement within a broader bearish trend, rather than the beginning of a recovery.

Final Summary

• Bitcoin saw a recovery in stablecoin liquidity, but this has not translated into aggressive demand for the leading crypto.
• The broader market fears, such as inflation risks, mean that the path to recovery will not be straightforward for BTC.