QNT Technical Analysis Mar 23

QNT, while maintaining the higher highs and higher lows structure in the uptrend, the test of the $67.63 swing low with the recent 24-hour drop has become critical. Will we see trend continuation or Change of Character (CHoCH)? Structure break levels will be decisive.

Market Structure Overview

QNT’s current market structure reflects an overall uptrend. The price is trading at $69.95, with a 24-hour change of -%6.87 under short-term downward pressure. However, remaining above EMA20 ($69.61) indicates that the short-term bullish structure is preserved. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis detects a total of 13 strong levels across 1D, 3D, and 1W charts: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 2S/2R on 3D, and 3S/3R on 1W. These levels highlight the strength of the structure. Although the Supertrend indicator gives a bearish signal ($82.53 resistance), the MACD’s positive histogram and RSI’s 51.82 neutrality signal that momentum is still upward. The market maintains the higher highs/higher lows (HH/HL) pattern, preserving its uptrend character, but the move below the recent swing high of $75.06 carries the risk of lower high (LH) formation.

Trend Analysis: Uptrend or Downtrend?

Uptrend Signals

The uptrend is supported by the classic HH/HL structure. The recent swing low at $67.63 (score: 84/100) formed above previous lows, confirming a higher low. This level, along with $65.01 (75/100), forms a strong support base. The price staying above EMA20 confirms the short-term trend is bullish. The positivity of the MACD histogram shows that buying momentum is continuing. On the 1W timeframe, the HH/HL pattern is clear: recent weekly swing highs are rising, and lows have also shifted upward. This structure gives a trend continuation signal; retesting and breaking $75.06 would open the $93.74 bullish target.

Downtrend Risk

For a downtrend, lower highs/lower lows (LH/LL) should be monitored. The drop from $75.90 to $68.50 in the last 24 hours may have broken the $75.06 swing high (86/100), forming an LH. If $70.94 (76/100) resistance cannot be surpassed, a bearish BOS could be triggered. The Supertrend’s bearish signal and BTC’s downtrend create a broad CHoCH risk in altcoins. A break below $67.63 would confirm LL, invalidating the structure and paving the way to the $44.16 bearish target.

Structure Break (BOS) Levels

Structure break (Break of Structure – BOS) is the key to trend change. For bullish BOS: Price must break above the $75.06 swing high (86/100), then surpass the $82.53 Supertrend resistance. This forms a new HH and confirms the uptrend. Bearish BOS: A close below the $67.63 swing low (84/100) initiates the LH/LL structure and gives a CHoCH signal. If this level breaks, momentum gains toward $65.01. On MTF, 1D supports are critical: the 3 support levels on 1W support the overall structure. BOS levels are based on swing points; volume is important in breaks, low volume could be a fakeout.

Swing Points and Their Importance

Recent Swing Highs

Recent swing highs: $75.0556 (score 86/100), representing the strong resistance at the $75.90 range top. This level is the peak of the uptrend as the latest HH; its break brings new bullish impulse. $70.9375 (76/100) is an intermediate resistance; if price holds here, short-term recovery is possible. These points support the $93.74 target with Fibonacci extension. Swing highs collect sell-side liquidity; break triggers buying.

Recent Swing Lows

Recent swing lows: $67.6300 (84/100), critical support – this protects the uptrend as HL. $65.0133 (75/100), secondary support; break increases bearish momentum. These lows hold buy-side liquidity; hold expects bounce. On MTF, 1D/3D lows are aligned, with 3 strong supports on 1W.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC at $68,606 level in downtrend (-0.85% 24h), Supertrend bearish. Key supports: $68,119, $65,604, $62,910; resistances: $68,874, $70,589, $72,148. QNT is highly correlated with BTC; if BTC breaks below $68,119, QNT’s $67.63 test accelerates and altcoin dump risk increases. If BTC surpasses $70,589 and rises to $72,148, QNT gets a $75.06 BOS opportunity for uptrend continuation. BTC dominance rise creates pressure on alts – QNT structure is BTC-dependent, monitor BTC levels for QNT Spot Analysis and QNT Futures Analysis.

Structural Outlook and Expectations

Structural outlook is bullish: HH/HL uptrend dominates, valid as long as above $67.63. BOS bearish requires $67.63 break; this brings CHoCH and initiates LH/LL. Bullish scenario: $75.06 break to $93.74 target. Risk: BTC downtrend and Supertrend bearish, short-term LH formation. Traders should use swing lows for stop-loss, highs for entry. Market structure is dynamic; monitor MTF alignment. Educational note: HH/HL defines impulse waves; BOS confirms trend shift. QNT carries long-term potential with structural strength, but short-term volatility is high.