Chainalysis: Stablecoins Could Power Up to $1.5 Quadrillion in Transactions by 2035

Chainalysis projected this week that stablecoin transaction volume could climb to as much as US$1.5 quadrillion (AU$2.1 quadrillion) by 2035, with payment-rail parity against Visa and Mastercard arriving sometime between 2031 and 2039. 

The blockchain analytics firm estimates a baseline trajectory of US$719 trillion (AU$1.02 quadrillion) in adjusted stablecoin volume by 2035 even before macro catalysts are layered in.

 Add demographic shifts and merchant adoption, the firm said, and the ceiling stretches “far higher.”

To anchor the projection, Chainalysis benchmarked 2025 activity at roughly US$28 trillion (AU$39 trillion) in “real economic activity”, a figure stripped of trading noise and isolated to payments, remittances and settlement flows.

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Generational and Distribution Catalysts

The report identifies two structural drivers behind the curve. Between 2028 and 2048, as much as US$100 trillion (AU$1.45 trillion) is expected to transfer from older cohorts to Millennials and Gen Z, demographics that are markedly more comfortable holding and transacting in digital assets.

The second catalyst is distribution. As stablecoins embed deeper into merchant checkout flows and backend payment systems, Chainalysis argued, paying with digital dollars will stop feeling like an active decision and start to resemble any other transaction. 

The firm also flagged AI-driven commerce as a likely accelerant for that shift.

Stripe’s acquisition of stablecoin infrastructure provider Bridge and Mastercard’s purchase of BVNK were cited as evidence that incumbents now treat stablecoins as part of “core payments infrastructure” rather than an edge case.

The Trump administration’s crypto advisor suggested stablecoins could ultimately channel deposits into the US banking system rather than away from it, depending on how issuance and reserves are structured. 

Read more: Michael Saylor’s Strategy Resumes Bitcoin Buying Despite Billions in Paper Losses

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