Apple stock erases tariff-driven plunge with 47% recovery

Apple wiped out its year’s biggest loss with a full 47% rebound that pushed it back into positive territory for 2025. The stock jumped as much as 3.3% on Monday, hitting $253.78, and finally landed 0.1% up on the year, a milestone considering where it started.

The company had fallen hard during the height of tariff panic in April, at one point sitting over 30% in the red.

The comeback followed weeks of fading trade tension and renewed interest in Apple’s newest iPhones, especially the more expensive models. Buyers are showing up, spending more, and pushing momentum that most analysts didn’t see coming. Apple is now within 3.5% of its all-time record, closing the gap left by earlier losses.

“It seems clear that demand has been more robust than expected for the new products,” said Bill Stone, the Chief Investment Officer at Glenview Trust, which manages $15.7 billion and holds Apple shares. “Expectations had been low, so the demand is a pleasant surprise, and whenever you get a positive surprise, that’s obviously supportive for the stock.” Stone made it clear that the surge in buying activity played a big role in the stock’s latest move.

Apple lags behind AI giants as momentum builds

Even with this recovery, Apple hasn’t caught up to its tech rivals. The Nasdaq 100 has already grown 17% in 2025, while companies with a bigger stake in artificial intelligence are moving much faster. Nvidia, Alphabet, and Meta have all soared over 30%, and Microsoft is up more than 20%. Apple, despite the bounce, still trails these names and lacks the AI narrative that’s driving most of the year’s big tech stock moves.

But analysts aren’t writing off Apple yet. There’s a new story building, and it’s all about the iPhone 17. It launched on Friday and early sales are 10% to 15% higher than last year’s iPhone 16 over the same time period. Production for base and Pro models is also being ramped up by roughly 20%, based on recent checks in Asian factories.

The performance gap might start to shrink soon if Apple manages to unlock more demand in China. Dan Ives, a well-known analyst at Wedbush, just raised his price target on Apple from $270 to $310, calling for a 26% upside from Friday’s close. That’s currently the highest target on Wall Street, based on FactSet numbers.

Analysts eye iPhone upgrade wave and China boost

Dan believes the market is missing what he calls a “major upgrade wave,” since around 315 million out of 1.5 billion iPhone users haven’t bought a new device in four years, and that backlog is now unlocking thanks to design tweaks and fresh hardware.

He wrote, “The Street is clearly underestimating this iPhone cycle in our view, and it’s a Ryder Cup Bethpage moment for Cook and Cupertino after a few years of disappointing growth years.”

That said, China remains a question mark. Sales in the region are expected to pick up, but the iPhone Air, Apple’s eSIM-only model, is still delayed there. Dan noted the delay, saying, “While iPhone Air is delayed in China… we expect this to be resolved over the coming month.” He sees China as a key piece of Apple’s iPhone 17 cycle and thinks the company has a chance to flip recent losses into real gains if it fixes the rollout issues soon.

Dan’s optimism lines up with the general view on Wall Street. Out of all the analysts covering Apple, 32 currently have a strong buy or buy rating, making up roughly two-thirds of coverage, based on LSEG data.

Still, the numbers don’t lie. Apple shares climbed nearly 1% in premarket trading, but the stock is down almost 2% for the year, despite the rebound. The company’s challenge now is simple: keep this recovery going while catching up to the AI-fueled tech rally happening around it.

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