Bitcoin (BTC) Drops 35% Against Gold: What’s Next for the Market?

Gold has been on the most magnificent rally since mid-August while Bitcoin (BTC) has been plunging since early October. This has led to gold taking a strong upper hand against its $BTC pair. Is this set to continue, or is Bitcoin about to flip the script?

Gold price set to reverse to at least $4,000

Source: TradingView

Across social media many are arguing as to whether gold has finally topped. In the 8-hour chart above it can be seen that a possible M pattern is playing out. If the price drops back to the neckline at $4,187 and then closes and confirms below, a drop to just under $4,000 would be the measured move of this bearish pattern.

In the grand scheme of things this would be a perfectly normal, and relatively shallow 9% reversal. This isn’t to say that gold has now had its time in the sun, and that there would be a lot more downside from here. A resumption of the upside movement might be more likely.

Is $3,600 gold a possibility?

Source: TradingView

Having said that, a large ascending channel can be drawn in the weekly time frame. This suggests that the price could come back to test the top of the channel. This would take the price back to around $3,600. Given the recent huge move up from gold, this kind of a pullback could still be very healthy.

BTC/Gold drops out of descending channel

Source: TradingView

So now we bring $BTC into the equation. In the daily chart above it can be observed that BTC/XAU has followed a downward trajectory inside a descending channel. The ratio recently dropped out of the bottom of the channel, but could also have found support at 24 ounces. In addition, the Stochastic RSI indicator lines are just starting to rise.

An unloved Bitcoin could be about to outperform gold

Source: TradingView

The weekly chart for BTC/XAU really puts things in perspective. The current horizontal support is very close to the 0.5 Fibonacci extension level. This would suggest that there is a good chance of a bounce in Bitcoin’s favour from here. If gold does continue to rule the roost, there is the possibility that the ratio could fall to the 0.618 Fibonacci at 21.25 ounces, although given the fact that the Stochastic RSI indicators are now hitting the bottom, the next rally in favour of Bitcoin is probably loading.

Bitcoin is very unloved at this point, and many are forecasting a further drop, possibly into a bear market. However, this is exactly the kind of negative sentiment that heralds a comeback rally. It may be a contrarian opinion, but watch for Bitcoin to start outperforming gold, potentially at least, into the last quarter of this year.

Disclaimer: This article is provided for informational purposes only. It is not offered or intended to be used as legal, tax, investment, financial, or other advice.