Triangle Compression Builds As ETF Outflows Cap Recovery

• ETH compresses inside a symmetrical triangle, nearing a decisive breakout as volatility tightens.
• EMA cluster between $2,950 and $3,000 continues to reject rebounds.
• Persistent ETF outflows limit upside despite strong fundamentals and staking support.

Ethereum price today trades near $2,925 after another failed attempt to reclaim short-term resistance. Price remains compressed inside a tightening triangle, with buyers defending rising support while sellers continue to press along a declining trendline from October highs. The setup keeps ETH at risk of expansion as December 26 approaches.

Triangle Structure Defines Near Term Direction

On the daily chart, Ethereum is trapped inside a symmetrical triangle that has been forming since mid November. Lower highs from the $4,600 peak intersect with higher lows built from the late November washout near $2,600.

Price is now approaching the apex. That compression signals balance, not strength. When ETH reaches this point, resolution tends to be decisive.

The structure reflects uncertainty. Buyers step in on dips, but they lack follow-through. Sellers defend rallies, but they are no longer forcing aggressive breakdowns.

EMA Cluster Caps Every Recovery Attempt

On the 2-hour chart, Ethereum continues to trade below its 20, 50, 100, and 200-period EMAs. The cluster between $2,950 and $3,000 has rejected price multiple times over the past week.

Each bounce stalls into that zone before rolling over. That behavior confirms sellers are still controlling short-term trend flow.

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Until ETH can close above the $3,000 to $3,050 region, upside attempts remain corrective rather than impulsive. The 200 EMA near $3,000 is especially important. It has not been reclaimed since the late November breakdown.

Momentum Remains Weak But Stable

Momentum indicators reflect consolidation rather than capitulation. RSI on the 2-hour timeframe sits near 41, holding above oversold territory but well below bullish thresholds.

Earlier bullish divergence supported the rebound from $2,800, but that signal has already played out. Since then, RSI has flattened, mirroring price compression.

Parabolic SAR remains above price on the daily chart, reinforcing that the broader trend remains under pressure despite short-term stabilization.

ETF Outflows Continue To Limit Upside

Flows remain the key headwind. Ethereum ETFs have recorded six consecutive weeks of net outflows. On December 24 alone, $84.6 million exited ETH-linked funds.

Last week saw over $555 million leave Ethereum investment products, the largest weekly withdrawal among major digital assets. That persistent outflow limits upside momentum even as on-chain metrics remain constructive.

Institutional rotation has not stopped. It has slowed, but it has not reversed.

Fundamentals Remain Strong Beneath The Surface

Despite price weakness, Ethereum’s underlying fundamentals continue to strengthen.

The Fusaka upgrade went live earlier this month, introducing PeerDAS and expanding blob capacity per block. That change lowered Layer 2 transaction costs by roughly 30 percent and improved data availability across the ecosystem.

Layer 2 adoption remains a core pillar. Arbitrum, Base, and zkSync continue to absorb activity, with Layer 2 networks now handling a growing share of Ethereum-linked volume. Total Ethereum DeFi TVL remains near $72 billion, maintaining over 60 percent dominance across the sector.

Staking participation also remains elevated. Roughly 33 million ETH is staked, even as weekly withdrawals exceed one million ETH. That balance reflects long-term conviction alongside short-term liquidity management.

Institutional Activity Sends Mixed Signals

Large holders remain active, but signals are mixed. Trend Research added over 46,000 ETH recently, lifting its total holdings above 580,000 ETH. That accumulation suggests confidence at current levels.

At the same time, BlackRock deposited more than 36,000 ETH into Coinbase this week. Whether that move reflects risk reduction or internal rebalancing remains unclear, but it added near-term pressure.

The result is a market caught between accumulation and distribution.

Support Levels Hold The Line For Now

Structurally, Ethereum is holding above a critical demand band between $2,780 and $2,850. That zone absorbed heavy selling during the November selloff and has not been revisited since.

As long as ETH holds above this range, downside remains contained. A loss of that support would change the character of the market and expose deeper downside toward $2,600 and potentially $2,300.

Outlook. Will Ethereum Go Up?

Ethereum is nearing resolution.

• Bullish case: A strong close above $3,050 flips the EMA cluster back into support and confirms a triangle breakout. That opens upside toward $3,300, followed by $3,600 if volume expands.
• Bearish case: Failure to hold $2,850 breaks rising support and signals a continuation of the corrective trend. Below that level, sellers regain control toward $2,600.

Ethereum is compressed, not broken. Direction will be decided by the next breakout. Until then, ETH remains range-bound between strong fundamentals and persistent flow pressure.

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