TON Technical Analysis Jan 22

TON price is at the $1.54 level, squeezed right above the $1.4951 support zone. Rejected from nearby resistance at $1.5553, downward momentum dominates.

Current Price Position and Critical Levels

TON is consolidating in the narrow $1.53-$1.59 band while maintaining its overall downtrend structure. The price, down 2.65% over 24 hours to $1.54, continues to stay below EMA20 ($1.67), signaling short-term bearish conditions. RSI at 38.62 is approaching oversold, but Supertrend remains bearish and points to $1.82 resistance. Multi-timeframe (MTF) analysis identifies 8 strong levels: 2 supports/2 resistances on 1D, 1 resistance on 3D, 3 supports/2 resistances confluence on 1W. Price is near the lower band of the 1W downtrend channel; a break below $1.4951 could lead to a quick drop to $1.4200. Above, liquidity accumulation is expected after the $1.5553 rejection. Volume is low at $39.94M, requiring a volume increase for breakout.

Support Levels: Buyer Zones

Primary Support

$1.4200 (strength score: 74/100), TON’s most critical buyer zone. This level forms a strong order block (OB) on the 1W timeframe; tested 4 times in the last 3 months with +5% bounces each time. Perfect confluence with EMA50 ($1.42) on 1D, high-volume wicks (2x average volume on last test) show buyers defending. Marked as a demand zone on 3D, liquidity pool concentrates here – ideal for stop-loss hunting. A break opens $1.0300 downside target (score 22/100), achieving 1:3 R/R ratio.

Secondary Support and Stop Levels

$1.4951 (score: 63/100), secondary support just below current price ($1.54). Breaker block from recent lows on 1D, rejected twice and aligns with POC (Point of Control) in volume profile. Short-term buyers accumulating positions here; RSI divergence potential (turn up from 38). Invalidation below $1.4951 – a break accelerates bearish momentum, stops should be below $1.48. Double bottom formation possible with $1.4200 confluence below, but BTC downtrend increases risk.

Resistance Levels: Seller Zones

Near-Term Resistances

$1.5553 (score: 60/100), nearest seller zone and 24-hour high. 1D supply zone, rejected during recent rise (2% drop via wick), volume spike confirms selling pressure. EMA20 ($1.67) approach blocked here; 1.5x volume required for breakout. Price action expects liquidity grab after false breakout.

Main Resistance and Targets

$1.6410 (score: 67/100), main resistance and 1W/3D confluence point. Strong supply block from historical peak tests (rejected 3 times), overlaps with Fibonacci 0.618 (61.8% retracement). Supertrend adds $1.82 resistance; a break activates $2.1604 upside target (score 25/100). Volume delta negative, sellers dominant; MTF shows 1D/1W breaker potential.

Liquidity Map and Big Players

Big players (smart money) accumulating long positions at $1.4951-$1.4200 supports – equal lows and stop clusters pooling liquidity here. Above, $1.5553-$1.6410 range holds sell-side liquidity, huntable via swing failure pattern (SFP). 1W order flow analysis shows imbalance (FVG) at $1.4200; classic scenario is downside sweep followed by reversal. Volume profile low nodes (~$1.50) ideal for manipulation, whales moving in sync with BTC correlation. Short squeeze risk low in downtrend, longs cleared on $1.42 invalidation.

Bitcoin Correlation

BTC in downtrend at $89,797 (0.26% drop), Supertrend bearish. TON shows 0.85% correlation with BTC; BTC break below $88,394 support parallels TON drop to $1.42. BTC rejections from $90,414-$92,454 resistances increase general altcoin pressure, testing TON $1.4951. BTC drop to $84,681 targets TON downside at $1.03; rising dominance crushes alts. Watch: BTC breakout above $90k triggers TON rally to $1.64, but current BTC supports weak – altcoin caution mode active.

Trading Plan and Level-Based Strategy

Level-based outlook: Above $1.5553 > $1.6410 target long bias (BTC confirmed), invalidation below $1.4951. Conversely, $1.4951 break > $1.4200 short, stop above $1.5553. For 1:2+ R/R, long entry at $1.42 (confluence confirmed), short at $1.64. Detailed data in TON Spot Analysis and TON Futures Analysis. Volume/MTF confirmation required; short bias forefront in dominant downtrend. This outlook is price action based – adapt to personal risk management.