America facing its most dangerous time in 80 years: neoconservative historian

2025 marked the 80th anniversary of the end of World War 2, which was followed by the Cold War. Although the Soviet Union was an ally of the United States, France and Great Britain during World War 2, the Cold War was a period of strong tensions between the Kremlin and Washington. And Americans feared that the Cold War would turn "hot" during the Bay of Pigs crisis in 1961.

During an interview with Germany's Der Spiegel published on February 20, historian/author Robert Kagan looked back on the last 81 years of U.S. history and laid out some reasons why he considers 2026 the most dangerous time for the U.S. and Europe since the end of World War 2.

Kagan hasn't been shy about describing U.S. President Donald Trump as a "fascist" and a "would-be dictator," and during the Der Spiegel interview, he lamented that Trump's return to the White House has been even more repressive than he predicted.

Kagan told Der Spiegel, "I have to admit, I didn't anticipate this kind of military brutality in the streets. I lacked the imagination for it. But it's still only the average people in the streets who are standing up. I don't know why hardly anyone seems to understand that Trump and the people behind him — his deputy chief of staff Stephen Miller, the Project 2025 head Russell Vought — that these people are actively trying to subvert liberal democracy. They are destroying the work of the Founders."

In 2026, Kagan added, the U.S. "certainly has one foot in dictatorship — pretty far in, actually." But he stressed that 2026 is a dangerous time not only because of Trump's domestic policies, but also, because of the instability he is creating around the world.

"We have a government that no longer wants to fulfill America's role as guarantor of global security," the historian/author told Der Spiegel. "More than that, the Trump Administration is hostile to the idea of liberalism and is using the considerable power of the United States to destroy the liberal world order that has been stable for 80 years. A multipolar world is emerging, dominated by the great powers Russia, China and the United States…. Many have bad memories of the Cold War, but if you look at the broad sweep of history, especially the last 200 years, you will see that the post-War period was relatively stable."

Kagan continued, "In almost every decade of the 19th Century and in the first half of the 20th Century, things were far worse than after 1945. Germany and France went to war against each other three times within 70 years. We had two world wars! Today, hardly anyone can imagine that anymore."

When Der Spiegel noted that Trump's policies are putting the North Atlantic Treaty Organization's (NATO) wellbeing at risk, Kagan responded, "And Europe will be left defenseless."

"In a multipolar world," Kagan continued, "Russia and China now have the opportunity to regain their historic spheres of influence. That probably means the end of sovereignty for numerous middle powers that have enjoyed unprecedented security thanks to the U.S…. I hope that Europe will rearm together as a unit. If individual powers rearm in a new nationalist revival, they will certainly want their own spheres of influence…. Germany is the most important bastion of liberalism in the world, and therefore, I hope that the country will rearm to defend liberalism and not just its own national interests."

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