Ripple prepares to dump 1 billion XRP in a week

Ripple is preparing for its routine escrow unlock of 1 billion XRP, a monthly event that dates back to 2017. Based on historical context, the next unlock is projected to occur on March 1, 2026. 

With February 21, 2026, marking just over a week until the next unlock, investors are assessing the impact of this predictable supply adjustment against a broader cryptocurrency market that remains in consolidation mode. In February, Ripple released the full 1 billion XRP, worth about $1.63 billion at the time. 

However, roughly 700 million XRP was re-escrowed within days, leaving only about 300 million XRP as net new supply. Data shows that around 33.895 billion XRP remained in escrow after that cycle.

A similar pattern is expected in March. While 1 billion XRP will technically unlock, most of it will likely be re-locked, reducing the escrow balance to roughly 33.595 billion XRP after the process.

This structure reflects Ripple’s original goal of improving transparency and avoiding sudden supply shocks. In this line, each month, time-locked contracts on the XRP Ledger release up to 1 billion XRP. In practice, Ripple typically retains only 20% to 30% for operational needs while placing the majority back into escrow.

As a result, the release schedule has stretched well beyond the initial 55-month timeline, ensuring a measured increase in circulating supply.

Impact on XRP price 

Historically, these unlocks have had limited long-term price impact, as they are widely anticipated and the net supply increase is relatively modest. 

While short-term volatility can arise from speculation or large holder activity, sustained price moves tend to depend more on broader market catalysts.

Ongoing transaction fee burns, whale accumulation, and growing institutional interest through investment products such as spot ETFs have also helped offset concerns about potential selling pressure. 

Overall, XRP price has been moving in tandem with the broader market, which has been under pressure in recent weeks. 

By press time, XRP was trading at $1.43, up about 0.6% in the past 24 hours.

XRP remains below both key moving averages, signaling sustained downside pressure. The 50-day SMA at $1.79 and the 200-day SMA at $2.31 both sit well above the current price, pointing to weak short-term momentum and a broader bearish trend. 

The notable gap to the 200-day SMA suggests this is more than a brief pullback and reflects a longer-term downtrend.

Meanwhile, the 14-day RSI at 41.42 is neutral but below the 50 midpoint, indicating subdued buying strength. While not yet oversold, the reading shows sellers still hold the upper hand, though a short-term bounce remains possible if momentum shifts.

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