Bitcoin bear grind: 5 red months, 74% LTH profit rapidly eroding
BTC is down ~50% from ATH, with 74% LTH profit shrinking as supply in loss hits 50% amid multi‑month selling.
- Long-term BTC holders still sit on ~74% average profit, but that margin is compressing as price grinds toward the LTH cost basis near ~$39k.
- BTC has printed almost five straight red monthly candles after a volatility spike above 150%, while weekly RSI hits one of its most oversold levels ever around the $60k-$65k zone.
- BTC supply in loss has hit ~10m coins, roughly 50% of the 20m circulating, a capital destruction level that has historically coincided with bear market bottoms.
Bitcoin long-term holders currently hold an average profit of approximately 74%, though that margin continues to decline as the cryptocurrency’s price moves closer to their cost basis, according to CryptoQuant analyst Darkfost.
The analyst noted that historical bear market cycles have been characterized by prices breaking below the long-term holder cost basis, triggering capitulation phases marked by realized losses of around 20%. Long-term holders are defined as investors known to be less sensitive to short-term price fluctuations, Darkfost stated.
Market recovery and bull phase entry have historically occurred only after such capitulation events, according to the analysis.
Glassnode reported that the 90-day moving average of the Realized Profit/Loss Ratio has fallen below 1, confirming a transition into an excess loss-realization regime. The blockchain analytics firm stated that these bearish conditions have historically persisted for at least six months before liquidity returns to markets.
Analyst James Check reported that Bitcoin has recorded nearly five consecutive red monthly candles following the largest volatility spike of the current cycle. Check observed that one-week realized volatility spiked above 150%, a level typically associated with capitulation events, and that weekly RSI has reached one of the most oversold readings in Bitcoin’s history. A significant amount of Bitcoin has migrated to new holders in a high price range this year, according to Check’s analysis.
Bitcoin supply in loss reached 10 million coins, the fourth-highest reading on record, analyst James Van Straten reported. Van Straten noted that circulating supply will reach 20 million Bitcoin next week, with 50% held at a loss. Historical patterns suggest such capital destruction levels are sufficient for a bear market bottom, according to Van Straten.
Bitcoin experienced a minor price rebound during early Asian trading hours, though bearish sentiment remains dominant in the market. The price movement formed another lower high while a key support level continues to hold, according to technical analysis.
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