Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Eyes $68.6K Liquidity Grab Before Drop?

Key Insights

• Bitcoin price prediction hinges on liquidity above resistance.
• Negative funding raised short squeeze risk.
• Binance Octopus inflows signaled cautious positioning.

Bitcoin traded at $67,719 on Thursday after retesting $70,000 a day earlier, rebounding from Tuesday’s $62,500 low. The move followed two days of net inflows into U.S.-listed exchange-traded funds, yet derivatives markets showed restrained confidence.

Traders weighed liquidity above range highs against growing short exposure across major platforms. The broader Bitcoin price prediction remained divided because spot demand stabilized sentiment while futures data reflected defensive positioning.

U.S.-listed Bitcoin exchange-traded funds absorbed fresh capital after a prolonged stretch of withdrawals.

This suggests institutional buyers reacted when the price dipped below $65,000. However, leverage metrics failed to confirm aggressive upside bets, leaving the market sensitive to sudden volatility.

Bitcoin Price Prediction Faces Liquidity Test

Crypto Tony wrote on X that he expects a wick toward the $68,500 to $68,600 zone. He added this Bitcoin price prediction before warning of a deeper pullback. He argued that liquidity likely sat above current levels.

At the same time, the lower range support between $65,500 and $66,600 still required validation. That structure implied a brief upward sweep could precede renewed downside pressure.

Farside Investors’ data showed $764 million in inflows over two sessions. This offset $1.2 billion in outflows from the previous eight trading days.

The move suggested dip buyers stepped in selectively. Even so, the recovery failed to rebuild strong conviction in leveraged markets, where traders remained cautious about chasing upside.

This tension between spot flows and futures hesitation defined the short-term setup. Buyers defended range support, yet the market lacked broad participation from aggressive longs. As a result, price action appeared vulnerable to liquidity-driven spikes in either direction.

Bitcoin Price Prediction And Derivatives Imbalance

Laevitas metrics showed the two-month futures annualized premium held near 2%, remaining below the 5% neutral threshold.

Bullish conviction had weakened since Jan. 31, when Bitcoin surrendered the $85,000 level it had defended for months. Options data reinforced that tone, as traders paid a premium for downside protection.

Deribit’s 30-day delta skew stood at 14%, far above the neutral band between negative 6% and positive 6%.

The reading improved from the 28% panic mark recorded earlier in the week. However, positioning still favored protection over speculation. Fear persisted despite price stabilization near range highs.

Amr Taha reported that funding rates across major exchanges turned negative on Feb. 27. Binance was at -0.005%, OKX at -0.007%, and Bybit at -0.011%.

Negative funding meant short traders paid longs, reflecting dominant bearish positioning. When shorts crowded the market, even moderate upside pressure could force liquidations.

Liquidation heat maps showed clusters concentrated above current levels, many originating around $92,000. If the Bitcoin price accelerates upward, short sellers may be forced to cover. This Bitcoin price prediction suggests momentum could grow even stronger.

Still, liquidation data mapped potential volatility rather than direction. This leaves the market dependent on broader liquidity conditions.

Bitcoin Price Prediction And Onchain Signals

Amr Taha also tracked Binance netflows by coin age cohorts, separating wallets by holding duration. The Octopus group, representing medium-term holders, recorded a positive netflow of about 1,700 BTC.

Earlier this year, the same cohort transferred roughly 5,000 BTC to the exchange before a decline from above $77,500.

The recent inflow appeared smaller in scale, suggesting reduced distribution pressure. While exchange inflows often precede selling, intensity matters when assessing risk. This shift occurred because medium-term holders adjusted their exposure without matching the earlier magnitude.

Meanwhile, market participants debated alternative explanations for weakness. CryptoQuant head of research Julio Moreno noted that some institutional flows reflected delta-neutral strategies rather than outright bearish bets.

That interpretation suggested part of the selling pressure stemmed from hedging activity rather than directional conviction.

Macroeconomic factors added complexity. Equity markets showed signs of risk aversion after a major technology stock declined despite strong earnings. That reaction mirrored broader caution among investors, limiting appetite for sustained crypto rallies.

The next immediate focus rests on how the price reacts if liquidity above recent highs gets tapped. A decisive move could set the next direction. The market may target $75,000 or rotate back toward range support.

The post Bitcoin Price Prediction: BTC Eyes $68.6K Liquidity Grab Before Drop? appeared first on The Market Periodical.