One Texas voting bloc may reveal major midterm prediction: 'Very good sign for Democrats'

An analyst Tuesday suggested that the Texas primaries could signal a major shift nationally among key voting blocs in the Democratic Party.

Jim Messina, former White House deputy chief of staff for operations, described in his new Substack piece what Democrats should keep in mind heading into the midterms and the next presidential election. Messina argued on MS NOW Tuesday morning that Democrats need to build a stronger relationship with young men in an effort to stop losing their votes in elections, advocating that progressive strategists should look at TikTok, streaming, cryptocurrency, sports, betting and prediction markets as paths to reaching this group.

"If you look at the issues, you know, Dems bled young voters in historic numbers in the last presidential [election]," Messina said. "And I think there's a view in my party that we just need to get on a couple Joe Rogan podcasts or we need to hang out with tech bros and it will all be fine. It's really just about, you know, figuring out social media. And I think it's deeper than that. Right now we're the party saying 'No' to a bunch of things that young male voters like and do every day, like video games, like sports betting, like prediction markets, like crypto, and they look at this and say, 'You're saying no, to all these things, maybe you're saying no to me, too.'"

Messina argued that it's not just about culture — it's about Democrats taking a look at their overall strategy.

"And I think best when we go back to the Clinton days or the Obama days of being pro-innovation, pro-new things, pro-things getting better and right now we're starting to be in this kind of, you know, being perceived by these voters as a nanny state," Messina said. "And someone who's saying, 'No, you can't do these things.' And I think that's a really dangerous place to be. And so, we need to stop talking, and listen to these young voters, and meet them where they are, not where we want them to be."

Democrats could have an opportunity, with the Texas primary as the first test, to see how Democrats and Republicans perform among young men, along with another key voting bloc: Latinos. Both groups broke support for Vice President Kamala Harris, voting instead for Trump. What comes next in Texas could reveal more about what could happen in November — and how Democrats reach these voters.

"Yeah, this is the most exciting primary we've had so far," Messina said. "What I'm going to be looking at, two things: are the young men coming back? Are they voting at all? Because that's a really important number, but more importantly in Texas, where are the Latinos going? When you look at some of these special elections Dems are getting back the young voters and back the Latino voters that Donald Trump rented in 2024. This will be a really interesting night because you have both like really hotly contested, Republican primary and a Democratic primary, and so when you and I look at the numbers tomorrow, we're going to look and see where the Latinos are going. And if the Latinos are starting to come back to the Democratic Party in Texas of all places, that is a very good sign for the Democrats in the midterm elections."