Dubai scrambles to save its reputation as haven for rich

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The Iran war has shaken Dubai’s status as a global wealth hub, as legions of expatriates scramble to escape and family offices and wealth managers reconsider their Middle East footprint.

For the past decade, Dubai, in the United Arab Emirates, has successfully marketed itself as a safe haven for the global elite. It’s sunny, safe and largely tax-free. Its ever-growing supply of luxury villas, condo towers and creature comforts for the 1% made Dubai the ultimate playground for worry-free wealth.

Now, however, Dubai’s reputation for safety has been shattered.

Dubai’s five-star Fairmont The Palm Hotel, on its famed man-made, palm-shaped archipelago, was struck by an explosion. Debris from a downed Iranian drone set fire to Burj Al Arab hotel and the Dubai airport was damaged by a missile strike. On Tuesday, the U.S. Consulate in Dubai was targeted by a suspected drone strike, causing a fire nearby.

“The U.S.-Israel war on Iran is upending that crucial aura of security in Dubai,” said Jim Krane, a fellow at Rice University’s Baker Institute. “Dubai’s economic model is based on expatriate residents providing the brains, brawn and investment capital. You need stability and security to bring in smart foreigners.”

Dubai and the United Arab Emirates sought to quickly reassure investors and downplay the violence. The UAE’s National Emergency Crisis and Disasters Management Authority announced Saturday that “the situation was under control.” Dubai’s police force this week threatened to arrest and jail social media influencers who share social content that “contradicts official announcements or that may cause social panic.”

Other wealth hubs in the region — including Abu Dhabi, Doha and Riyadh — are also caught in the fallout of the war. Like Dubai, they have made attracting the wealthy a key economic policy. Yet Dubai’s ascendance and dependence on wealth capital stand out in the region. Kane said that’s because Dubai no longer relies on oil revenue like its neighbors, instead banking on the confidence of foreigners.

“The city cannot function if everyone with a foreign passport flees,” he said. “Dubai will literally shut down. Dubai is more exposed to the risks of an expat exodus.”

Dubai is now home to 81,200 millionaires, 237 centimillionaires (those worth $100 million or more) and at least 20 billionaires, according to Henley & Partners. An estimated 9,800 millionaires were expected to move to Dubai in 2025 and 2026, according to Henley, with demand mainly coming from the U.K., China, and other parts of Asia. With the ruling Maktoum family starting to diversify the economy away from oil decades ago, Dubai created special economic zones and golden visas programs to effectively industrialize wealth attraction as a national strategy.

Dubai has no personal income tax, no capital gains tax and no inheritance tax, making it ideal for the ultra wealthy and family offices. The Dubai International Finance Center (a special economic zone) reported in early January that the top 120 families in the economic zone managed more than $1.2 trillion combined. Last month, the DIFC stated that it was home to 1,289 “family-related entities,” up 61% from a year ago. 

For now, many wealthy families and wealth professionals are focused on getting out. Charter companies report that demand for private jets is far exceeding available seats and flights. Ameerh Naran, CEO of Vimana Private Jets, said on Tuesday that the broker received more than 100 client inquiries overnight. He said he hasn’t seen such demand since the pandemic. A jet from Riyadh to Europe can cost up to $350,000, he said.

He added that the Dubai residents he spoke to are traveling for business meetings, not fleeing to safety.

“They don’t feel unsafe,” he said. “It’s pretty much life as normal was just a bit of extra noise in the background with all these missiles. But life has to go on. They need to travel.”

Dale Buckner, CEO of security firm Global Guardian and a former Green Beret, said the exodus shows no signs of slowing. By Tuesday morning, Buckner had seven corporate clients including large finance and consulting forms looking to evacuate 1,000 to 3,000 employees.

“This looks very much like Ukraine,” he said.

“I think everyone has realized the Iranians are successfully targeting five-star hotels and airports at scale, and now they’re starting to shut down the oil infrastructure,” he said. “I do not believe anyone thought that was possible.”

Many companies and professionals in Dubai said the business case for staying remains strong. And they are careful not to cross the government at a time of crisis. Hasnain Malik, who leads emerging-markets equity and geopolitics strategy at Dubai-based Tellimer, said hedge funds and family offices are mainly drawn to Dubai’s tax, regulatory and stable banking regimes. All those attributes remain in place, he said.

“Those reasons have not changed,” he said. “It is only in one aspect of the lifestyle driver, pristine security, that recent events have called into question.”

Henley & Partners, which helps the wealthy secure visas in other countries, said Dubai has always proven resilient in times of uncertainty. Dominic Volek, group head of private clients at Henley & Partners, said the attacks in Dubai are also a reminder of the importance of geographic hedging.

“Situations like this reinforce a core principle we often discuss with clients: the value of global optionality,” he said. “Internationally mobile families typically diversify their residence and citizenship exposure across multiple regions — including the Americas, Europe, the Middle East, and Asia — so they retain flexibility in the face of geopolitical uncertainty, wherever and whenever it may arise. These decisions are generally strategic and long-term in nature rather than reactions to short-term events.”

One sector that could feel longer-term pressure is Dubai’s real estate market. Dubai’s real estate prices have been surging for five years straight, boosted by its golden visa program that gives foreigners a 10-year renewable visa for buying a property of $550,000 or more. Last year a 47,200-square-foot penthouse at the new Bugatti Residences set a price record for Dubai and the UAE when it sold for AED 550, or about $150 million.

Yet even before the Iran war, there were some signs that Dubai’s breakneck building spree, soaring prices and widespread speculation could start to cool. In September, UBS estimated the Dubai had the fifth-highest bubble risk of 21 major cities, ranking behind Zurich and Los Angeles. In the spring, Fitch Ratings predicted a correction in late 2025 and in 2026 with prices falling as much as 15%.

Fitch Ratings’ Anton Lopatin said the effect on real estate values will depend on the conflict’s scope and duration. For now, he said, expatriate departures could “put pressure” on Dubai’s housing market.