Macroeconomic Outlook for Next Week: The specter of stagflation reappears, the Fed faces a dilemma, and CPI and PCE data are key variables.

PANews, March 7th - According to Jinshi News, the escalating tensions between the US and Iran have led to significant market volatility this week due to uncertainty surrounding the future direction of the conflict. Recent data suggests that the Federal Reserve will have to address rising inflation and declining employment to curb the possibility of stagflation. Below are the key points the market will focus on in the coming week (all times are Beijing time):

• At 23:00 on Monday, the US Federal Reserve Bank of New York will release its 1-year inflation forecasts for February.
• At 20:30 on Wednesday, the US February unadjusted CPI year-on-year rate and unadjusted core CPI year-on-year rate will be released; the US February seasonally adjusted CPI month-on-month rate and seasonally adjusted core CPI month-on-month rate will also be released.
• At 15:00 on Friday, the UK's three-month GDP month-on-month rate for January, the manufacturing/industrial production month-on-month rate for January, and the seasonally adjusted goods trade balance for January will be released.
• At 20:30 on Friday, the following data will be released: US January Core PCE Price Index (YoY/MoM), US January Personal Spending (MoM), US Q4 Real GDP Annualized Quarterly Rate (Revised), and US January Durable Goods Orders (MoM).
• At 22:00 on Friday, the following data will be released: US January JOLTs job openings, US March one-year inflation rate expectations (preliminary), and US March University of Michigan consumer sentiment index (preliminary).

Next week, the focus will be on the February CPI released on Wednesday and the January PCE released on Friday. Stronger-than-expected core CPI and core PCE price indices could further support the US dollar; conversely, weak data could drag down the dollar and boost spot gold's rebound. In addition, Q4 earnings reports remain a key focus, with attention next week on reports from companies such as Oracle (ORCL.N).